The Dow is down AKA Stock Market Watch 2020. Update: Pump before the dump.

Ryu

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
878
Reality has to set in soon. US will be hit hard. Hope everyone here averages down instead of one big chunk of money into the possible bottom that won't be the bottom. This thing has some way south left.
 

Blue Skies

Member
Mar 27, 2019
7,933
Reality has to set in soon. US will be hit hard. Hope everyone here averages down instead of one big chunk of money into the possible bottom that won't be the bottom. This thing has some way south left.
I sold like 20 percent of my stuff yesterday morning
Just gonna hold on to that and wait a month and then Jump Back In
 

MrBob

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,447
End of day sell off was the easiest thing to see happening. Too many people were going to cash out when the week is up nearly 20 percent.

So does anyone want to call it and say weve seen the bottom? Lots of others on the other side in here. I'm leaning towards that weve seen the bottom but not really willing to defend that statement.
I'm going to answer this question in two parts. First part is, did the market put in a bottom on Monday? Possibly. The market put in A low but it may not be THE low. The second part is do I believe we are going to retest Monday's bottom again in the SP500? I do, and my timetable is sometime in April. Whether big money managers stop at 2200 or spike it below to like 2050, I believe this range is getting retested. Plus, there was a juicy gap created on the Tuesday pop that will likely try to get filled, which means the market needs to go down to do it. If the retest holds then you have signs of a true bottom to try and break out of a bear market (which I believe we are in). If it doesn't...well, time to spike lower. That's my opinion though, could be wrong! Federal Government and Federal Reserve are basically tossing out unlimited amounts of money to fight this. Always have to leave open the possibility of a V recovery, but that's not my base case.
 

SmokeMaxX

Member
Oct 25, 2017
965
What to do, what to do. You know anytime the market goes down, Trump is going to flail as much as he can to pump it back up. But you also know that the market should be on a fairly sharp decline in the coming weeks/months. Meh. Maybe I'll split my money and take both positions.
 

zulux21

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,475
What to do, what to do. You know anytime the market goes down, Trump is going to flail as much as he can to pump it back up. But you also know that the market should be on a fairly sharp decline in the coming weeks/months. Meh. Maybe I'll split my money and take both positions.
I put about half of my money in today (and I am up 3 cents per share on the day :P)
if monday goes up I will likely sell, if it goes down I just got in a bit earlier than I should have. I will add more money later either way.
 

RolandGunner

Member
Oct 30, 2017
4,082
The Economist has put out some new GDP estimates. A near 3% drop for the US would be very tough but these Euro numbers are legit frighting. -7% for Italy and Germany is getting close to depression territory.

 

SRG01

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,890
What to do, what to do. You know anytime the market goes down, Trump is going to flail as much as he can to pump it back up. But you also know that the market should be on a fairly sharp decline in the coming weeks/months. Meh. Maybe I'll split my money and take both positions.
That really is the best that you can do. Do a straddle and hope for the best.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,145
Are they going to retool into a Corona-based economy producing the world's supplies of hand sanitizer and PPE?

What do they think the market for consumer goods is going to be over the next year?
Exactly what I was thinking. There's no one to buy the goods that their factories are producing. I'm trying to see how they get to 1% growth when everyone else's economies are contracting.

Because China is still banking easy GDP gains from farmers moving to the cities. They were estimated to grow around 7% or so before corona hit, and have been around that level for several years now.

And there's our answer. I just skipped this when responding.
 
Oct 27, 2017
6,465
Because China is still banking easy GDP gains from farmers moving to the cities. They were estimated to grow around 7% or so before corona hit, and have been around that level for several years now.

But that urbanization push is based on needing a workforce in urban factories. If the factories are running way below capacity, why would they hire more workforce? Wouldn't many of those people go into local and underground economies?
 

RolandGunner

Member
Oct 30, 2017
4,082
But that urbanization push is based on needing a workforce in urban factories. If the factories are running way below capacity, why would they hire more workforce? Wouldn't many of those people go into local and underground economies?
I think the basic issue is that per capita income in China is still only $16K per year and obviously half the population makes less than that. A lower average income, and a government that is very aggressive in promoting growth, gives them more room to expand than other industrialized countries.
 
Last edited:

Haz

You have seen.
Member
Oct 25, 2017
271
Shoulda bought more SH oh well.
At the current rate of spread, it's only about 3 weeks until it reaches around 10x the current number. 6 weeks would put it at 100x the current number (around 84m). Social distancing will obviously slow it but given how inconsistently and terribly many areas are rolling it out, coupled with Trump resuming operations in a couple of weeks, there will be a major shock coming.
Shoulda clarified 10x reported, but yeah same sentiment. Not in full crazy hyper bear mode, keeping an eye on other countries and cities limiting growth of new cases, but doesn't look great for US right now.
 

less

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,833
Agreed with the above. Monday might not be a great time to invest barring a titanic crash that brings the market back to the lows we saw earlier. Perhaps later in the week.
 

greepoman

Member
Oct 26, 2017
859
if the market goes up next week i don't understand anything
I think people are almost numb to the daily increasing numbers and it could take something bigger (like when earnings start to come in) to really go to new lows. And absent any unexpected bad news the market might actually rally on any hopeful news (any possible successful treatment no matter how bad the methodology).

I'm specifically thinking about the French doc's 2nd study (that just came out) of Trump's favorite drugs which still seems to use cherry picking (apparently this doctor doesn't believe in random selection for studies).
 

MrBob

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,447
They are going to get so many more people killed by continuing to try to blame New York instead of actually shutting down Florida and admitting they have a problem because they didn't shut down things to stop attracting people :/

I was actually in Florida at Universal orlando the first week of March before spring break. It was busy then but not crazy. I was leaving universal when spring break was starting up and it got insane the last Friday before I left. This was a two year planned trip, didnt really want to go but it was money wasted otherwise with no refund. I tried to stay away from big crowds as much as I could even though people there at the time didn't care. The last Friday at Universal orlando the city walk was so insanely packed with people from spring break it was unbelievable. Left early and bailed out when I saw this, planned to head to the second part of the trip a day early which thankfully could get in. Second part of the trip was renting a condo for a couple days by the beach on the by Madeira Beach in Tampa Bay, which we left for early that Friday. No surprise, beach was insanely packed. I didnt go to the beach, watched the view from my second story porch. Pretty much didn't leave until the flight back, which wasn't heading out of Florida until 10pm so it wasn't busy leaving and getting back in. Had to self quarantine when I got back but didnt really matter since work from home got installed like two days later. Been about 20 days since I've been back, no symptoms, which is good. Guarantee Florida is a hot spot bringing the virus all over the USA. Most interesting trip I've taken.
 
Last edited:

Mahonay

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,259
Pencils Vania
I was actually in Florida at Universal orlando the first week of March before spring break. It was busy then but not crazy. I was leaving universal when spring break was starting up and it got insane the last Friday before I left. This was a two year planned trip, didnt really want to go but it was money wasted otherwise with no refund. I tried to stay away from big crowds as much as I could even though people there at the time didn't care. The last Friday at Universal orlando the city walk was so insanely packed with people from spring break it was unbelievable. Left early and bailed out when I saw this, planned to head to the second part of the trip a day early which thankfully could get in. Second part of the trip was renting a condo for a couple days by the beach on the keys, which we left for early that Friday. No surprise, beach was insanely packed. I didnt go to the beach, watched the view from my second story porch. Pretty much didn't leave until the flight back, which wasn't heading out of Florida until 10pm so it wasn't busy leaving and getting back in. Had to self quarantine when I got back but didnt really matter since work from home got installed like two days later. Guarantee Florida is a hot spot bringing the virus all over the USA. Most interesting trip I've taken.
The south in general is going to get fucked hard in the coming weeks. Florida though has so many heavily populated areas. Guarantee it’s the next epicenter.
 

MrBob

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,447
What was crazy is the news in orlando and tampa bay wasn't even bringing up the corona virus at all until the day I left, when cases started being reported on local news. Seemed to be out of sight out of mind for the state.

In retrospect, it might have been really good that the week I was at florida there were a couple days with the hottest temperatures on record for early march. Temperatures were over 90 degrees so it was super hot outside. But I don't know how covid 19 gets affected by heat (or does not).
 
Last edited:

TitlePending

The Fallen
Dec 26, 2018
1,680
What was crazy is the news in orlando and tampa bay wasn't even bringing up the corona virus at all until the day I left, when cases started being reported on local news. Seemed to be out of sight out of mind for the state.

In retrospect, it might have been really good that the week I was at florida there were a couple days with the hottest temperatures on record for early march. Temperatures were over 90 degrees so it was super hot outside. But I don't know how covid 19 gets affected by heat (or does not).
The virus exists in Singapore, both hot and humid. Their low numbers may be a combination of weather and their superior healthcare system. And national leadership that takes this seriously.
 

MrBob

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,447
Yeah Trump has his head in the sand. In related news this is another example why I don't expect a V economic recovery in the USA.


We need at least a therapeutic to get people to go back out on a regular basis.