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October 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, November 12th

DeuceGamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,593
I, for one, look forward to a new potential disappointment!

(Last year was 1.8M, right? Then 2M should be possible, although the lack of a Smash tier release in December makes it pretty difficult)
Isn’t Cyber Monday also in Dec this year? That should help with growth over last year. 2m is a monumental task, but I guess it’s within the realm of possibilities.
 

IronTed

Member
Jun 6, 2019
277
2 million is hard. No Smash but cyber monday will help, plus I'd imagine SS + RFA + LM3 is more impactful than Let's Go + SMP. Lite also helps.

As for 20 million this FY, it's very easy imo. Last H2 Nintendo shipped 11.88 (9.42 + 2.46) million. They need to ship 13.07 million this year to reach 20. That's only slightly over 10% growth needed. For comparison, the Switch was up slightly over 36% for H1.
 

GamingCJ

Member
Apr 14, 2019
460
So Benji tweeted that PS4 sales will only see a small decline compared to 2018's Black Friday week. Bundles seem to be all sold out since yesterday.
 

DeuceGamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,593
True, Cyber Monday does help a bit. Not sure if that and the general momentum is enough to add 200k compared to last December, though.
Looks like Benji clarified on Twitter the Switch performance as...“Overall MONSTER volume. Blown away at its performance. Significant gain YoY”. Not sure if the gain is specific to BF or all of November, but either way it should be up.

Starting to get exciting with some details worth discussing IMO.
 

Dark Cloud

Member
Oct 27, 2017
36,266
Hopefully everyone realizes a system that can’t dock at a lesser price is still not a better value than a system that costs a little more and can dock. The hybrid is the future for Nintendo.
 

Zorg1000

Member
Jul 22, 2019
182
It did 1.5M in December 2017, which included Cyber Monday.

It then did 1.77M in December 2018 with no Cyber Monday.

2019 will have Cyber Monday.
December will be interesting for sure, on one hand there isnt a big Dec title but on the other hand it has a cheaper sku and Cyber monday included.

I'm gonna go with Smash & Lite cancelling each other out and Cyber Monday giving this year the edge so ~1.9 million is my prediction.

Last year Nov+Dec was a little over 3.1 million, I wonder if it can do 3.5 million this year.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,633
Hopefully everyone realizes a system that can’t dock at a lesser price is still not a better value than a system that costs a little more and can dock. The hybrid is the future for Nintendo.
It is a better value for a lot of people but also a worse for most. Don't see a problem in that, Nintendo always positioned the OG as the flagship model.
 

Zorg1000

Member
Jul 22, 2019
182
Hopefully everyone realizes a system that can’t dock at a lesser price is still not a better value than a system that costs a little more and can dock. The hybrid is the future for Nintendo.
I think most people expect the hybrid sku to still be the most popular model with Lite being a supplemental sku that helps increase sales and make up maybe ~1/3 of sales.

It's similar to Pro/X but in the opposite direction, those were aimed at the upper end and were more powerful and expensive while Lite is aiming at the lower end by being smaller and cheaper.
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
356
That's bonkers. They are on their way to reach 10m ?

Switch software is selling absurdly fast and strong.

We should get an update on Pokemon too. Probably at 3m+.
Almost assuredly.

Last December's PR (pre-Christmas) had BOTW (switch only)/MK8D/SMO at >4M and the PR in September after the Lite launch had them at >6M along with Smash. This week was the first time they all had a major discount.

Dunno bout SMO, but BOTW/SSBU/MK8D will cruise their way to 10M in the US (MK8D should get there soon - PR might clarify).

Pokemon may have been above 3M before the start of this week I think, if they give PR we might have an idea if its Nov 2019 (3 weeks) figure will be higher than SSBU's Dec 2018 figure (5 weeks).
 
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IronTed

Member
Jun 6, 2019
277
Looks like Benji clarified on Twitter the Switch performance as...“Overall MONSTER volume. Blown away at its performance. Significant gain YoY”. Not sure if the gain is specific to BF or all of November, but either way it should be up.

Starting to get exciting with some details worth discussing IMO.
Based on these statements, do we think 1.5+ million is possible?
 

DeuceGamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,593
Based on these statements, do we think 1.5+ million is possible?
If I’m not mistaken Switch did almost 1.8m last November, with Cyber Monday. This November NPD period will not include Cyber Monday so I’m not sure how that will affect overall Nov sales, but it should easily be over 1.5m based on Benji’s statements.
 

Jbone115

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,197
If I’m not mistaken Switch did almost 1.8m last November, with Cyber Monday. This November NPD period will not include Cyber Monday so I’m not sure how that will affect overall Nov sales, but it should easily be over 1.5m based on Benji’s statements.
Pretty sure the 1.8M was December. I think it was “only” 1.3M for November.
 

IronTed

Member
Jun 6, 2019
277
If I’m not mistaken Switch did almost 1.8m last November, with Cyber Monday. This November NPD period will not include Cyber Monday so I’m not sure how that will affect overall Nov sales, but it should easily be over 1.5m based on Benji’s statements.
Nope, it did about 1.36 million in November and 1.77 in December. Still, I agree 1.5 is very possible if Benji is correct.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,654
The Netherlands
it was always gonna do 2 million this year.
It has four things going for it, and one against:
+ Pokémon Sword Shield is a bigger deal than Let's Go
+ Cyber Monday is part of the December tracking period
+ Switch momentum in general has been bigger compared to last year
+ Switch Lite adds on to the total quite nicely (even a 20% addition when it is totally additive is a huge deal)

- No release that is anywhere near as big as Smash during December

The Smash release is a big deal, and it moved a lot of units. But the pros are quite sizable as well, which means that 2M definitely is quite possible, though not guaranteed per se I think.

Edit: as DeuceGamer mentioned, the Smash bundle released in November, so that siphoned some sales from December and from Smash' sales power.
 
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DeuceGamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,593
It has four things going for it, and one against:
+ Pokémon Sword Shield is a bigger deal than Let's Go
+ Cyber Monday is part of the December tracking period
+ Switch momentum in general has been bigger compared to last year
+ Switch Lite adds on to the total quite nicely (even a 20% addition when it is totally additive is a huge deal)

- No release that is anywhere near as big as Smash during December

The Smash release is a big deal, and it moved a lot of units. But the pros are quite sizable as well, which means that 2M definitely is quite possible, though not guaranteed per se I think.
Some of the Smash systems were sold in Nov last year with a download code for Smash once Smash released. Obviously it still moved units in Dec, but I thought it may be helpful to mention.
 

slavesnyder

Member
Oct 26, 2017
919
SlaveSnyder Media Corp.
top social mentions for switch doesn't automatically mean sales success.
most of those mentions featuring switch were like "why the fuck doesn't nintendo switch have proper black friday discounts. now i will spend my money on pork loin instead."
 

Limabean01

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,202
WA, australia
Can we expect the November NPD Prediction thread soon?

:)
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,326

PS4 hardware being already above PS2 hardware in value is the big takeway here. I guess the PS2 was pretty cheap quite quickly, at least compared to PS4.