October 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, November 12th

JamFlan

Member
May 16, 2018
673
Frankly, is it usual or unusual ?

If we go with the consensus that the Switch isn't impacting the PS4/XB1, is this decline in line with how the previous generations phased out ?
PS4/Xbox One saw stronger sales the last year or two from Fortnite. The way I understand it is that boost waning along with the natural decline in hardware sales is leading to a big drop. I could be wrong though as I don't follow US sales too closely as we don't get hard numbers.
 

Jeean

Member
Oct 25, 2017
26
Oh nice, my crystal ball worked for once!

Now, the preseason are done, it is time for the holiday sale!
 

TaterTots

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,476
Got a question. I don't know anything about this stuff, BUT, preorders are calculated into the first month sales of a game, right?
 

IronTed

Member
Jun 6, 2019
285
PS4/Xbox One saw stronger sales the last year or two from Fortnite. The way I understand it is that boost waning along with the natural decline in hardware sales is leading to a big drop. I could be wrong though as I don't follow US sales too closely as we don't get hard numbers.
Based on the rough numbers we have, PS4 was
down ~3% in 2018 and XBO was up ~2%. The corresponding years for the 360 and PS3 are 2010 and 2011, where the 360 was up ~43% and the PS3 was up ~4%.

For this year (year 6), PS4 is currently ~36% down and the XBO is down ~35%. The 360 was up ~6% and PS3 was down ~25%.
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
359
I think Sword/Shield all SKUs combined will take the unit sales record for an exclusive launch month.

Smash Ultimate did ~3.6M retail and some unknown figure for digital (<1.4M though, as NoA confirmed 5M total sales in late Jan 2019).

Pokemon will have a shorter timeframe, but more rabid buying-base and BF week to boost it along with lower entry point with Switch Lite. I think SuMo were somewhere in that 3M ballpark in 2016 anyway.
Sun/Moon did 3.7M in total (retail +digital) in NA (not US) in its first two weeks. While it's possible that Sword/Shield does more than that (I think it'll break 4M in two weeks), but digital will be a larger share of that (due to natural growth and due to vouchers). I don't think it'll beat the retail debut month of Smash as a result.
Pokémon Sword/Shield won't beat Smash Ultimate launch, i also don't know if will reach Sun/Moon performance. X/Y is a better comparation as we talk about the first entry on the console. X/Y sold 1.7 million in 4 weeks, Sword/Shield will do a lot better than that for sure but at least this time i don't expect record breaking.
I'm keeping this rolling! :D

What we know:



Back in January I think we remarked that digital share for Smash in Dec must have been around 900K (~20%), as that would peg January figures at 4-500K. Any lower digital % in Dec would result in massive January figures (5M cumulative reported on 1/31, so presumably through 1/30, which would mean that 1/31 - 2/2 would add in additional January sales).

Don't think we can say definitively which had the bigger 2-day opening, seems to close to call. Story from here on out:

Smash has 4 Dec weeks following its launch; Pokemon only has 2.
SwSh have Black Friday week included; Smash did not.
Smash had demand concentrated in its launch month of December.
Pokemon has demand that can be spread over the remaining 6 weeks of the year, which means less concentration in its opening month.

Don't think we'll ever know the true outcome of this face-off, but its more likely that SwSh will fail to match Smash's NPD launch month record, given everything we know. We'll see what kind of picture we can construct with the NPD/NoA drip-fed info that will come out over the next few weeks.
There is a poster on VGC that claims to have data for a big-box store. They reported 102K sell-through for SwSh for the week ending Sat, 11/16. So that represents ~5% of retail+digital sell-through as reported by Nintendo/GF for the same time frame (>2.0M sell-through/digital for US for week ending Sat, 11/16).

For SwSh week 2, week ending Sat, 11/23, they had it at 56,300, so 45% drop (remember US retail tracking is Sun-Sat, so a Fri launch week 1 is 2-days, week 2 is 7 days). Using the same ratio as above, week 2 sell-through/digital for SwSh in US is 1.126M and 9-day sell through is ~3.13M.

Week 3 will be the final Nov week tracked by NPD. If the above W2 extrap is correct, SwSh needs around 1.4M this week (black friday week, but no Cyber Monday) to hit SSBU's est 4.5M DEC sell-through.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,759
The Netherlands
There is a poster on VGC that claims to have data for a big-box store. They reported 102K sell-through for SwSh for the week ending Sat, 11/16. So that represents ~5% of retail+digital sell-through as reported by Nintendo/GF for the same time frame (>2.0M sell-through/digital for US for week ending Sat, 11/16).

For SwSh week 2, week ending Sat, 11/23, they had it at 56,300, so 45% drop (remember US retail tracking is Sun-Sat, so a Fri launch week 1 is 2-days, week 2 is 7 days). Using the same ratio as above, week 2 sell-through/digital for SwSh in US is 1.126M and 9-day sell through is ~3.13M.

Week 3 will be the final Nov week tracked by NPD. If the above W2 extrap is correct, SwSh needs around 1.4M this week (black friday week, but no Cyber Monday) to hit SSBU's est 4.5M DEC sell-through.
I see, intriguing number if interpolatable. I'll try and ask Benji as well if he has any insight on Pokémon's second week, to see if his report matches up with that.
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
359
I see, intriguing number if interpolatable. I'll try and ask Benji as well if he has any insight on Pokémon's second week, to see if his report matches up with that.
It's going to be obscure/hard to verify.

What could end up being helpful is NoA PR next week following BF/CM. If SwSh end up hitting a nice round milestone of 4.5 or 5.0M sell-through in the US, they may drop that in there.

At 4.5M it's right in SSBUs ballpark (slightly above or below) with one less week on the market.

At 5.0M it definitely passed it.
 

IronTed

Member
Jun 6, 2019
285
There is a poster on VGC that claims to have data for a big-box store. They reported 102K sell-through for SwSh for the week ending Sat, 11/16. So that represents ~5% of retail+digital sell-through as reported by Nintendo/GF for the same time frame (>2.0M sell-through/digital for US for week ending Sat, 11/16).

For SwSh week 2, week ending Sat, 11/23, they had it at 56,300, so 45% drop (remember US retail tracking is Sun-Sat, so a Fri launch week 1 is 2-days, week 2 is 7 days). Using the same ratio as above, week 2 sell-through/digital for SwSh in US is 1.126M and 9-day sell through is ~3.13M.

Week 3 will be the final Nov week tracked by NPD. If the above W2 extrap is correct, SwSh needs around 1.4M this week (black friday week, but no Cyber Monday) to hit SSBU's est 4.5M DEC sell-through.
It's going to be obscure/hard to verify.

What could end up being helpful is NoA PR next week following BF/CM. If SwSh end up hitting a nice round milestone of 4.5 or 5.0M sell-through in the US, they may drop that in there.

At 4.5M it's right in SSBUs ballpark (slightly above or below) with one less week on the market.

At 5.0M it definitely passed it.
Quite interesting. Obviously we have no idea of how representative that store is, but if remotely accurate then we're looking a very big numbers.

Do we have any LTD's for previous Pokemon games in the US?
 

Welfare

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,027
There is a poster on VGC that claims to have data for a big-box store. They reported 102K sell-through for SwSh for the week ending Sat, 11/16. So that represents ~5% of retail+digital sell-through as reported by Nintendo/GF for the same time frame (>2.0M sell-through/digital for US for week ending Sat, 11/16).

For SwSh week 2, week ending Sat, 11/23, they had it at 56,300, so 45% drop (remember US retail tracking is Sun-Sat, so a Fri launch week 1 is 2-days, week 2 is 7 days). Using the same ratio as above, week 2 sell-through/digital for SwSh in US is 1.126M and 9-day sell through is ~3.13M.

Week 3 will be the final Nov week tracked by NPD. If the above W2 extrap is correct, SwSh needs around 1.4M this week (black friday week, but no Cyber Monday) to hit SSBU's est 4.5M DEC sell-through.
Link?
 

GamingCJ

Member
Apr 14, 2019
476
Seems like the Only on PlayStation Bundle for $199 is now sold out at every major retailer (online at least).
And again Sony did not provide enough stock to last until actual Black Friday.
 

pld

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,879
Was the PlayStation bundle even more limited this year than last year's Spider-Man bundle? I swear I saw it being sold out on Tuesday already (on Amazon that is).
 

GamingCJ

Member
Apr 14, 2019
476
Was the PlayStation bundle even more limited this year than last year's Spider-Man bundle? I swear I saw it being sold out on Tuesday already (on Amazon that is).
Hard to tell. It's been in stock at target and Walmart until recently. Combined with the PS4 Pro Bundle at $299 (I think last year's Black Friday didn't have any Pro Price Promotion) Sony might have offered about the same amount of PS4s as last year.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,826
The Switch dominating so hard this year killed a lot of buzz surrounding NPD threads it seems.

I remember people going nuts at this period of the year the previous years.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,759
The Netherlands
The Switch dominating so hard this year killed a lot of buzz surrounding NPD threads it seems.

I remember people going nuts at this period of the year the previous years.
It's more that the deals prior to the day itself aren't that unique (only thing that was visible was the PS4 amazon bundle, which went out of stock without even hitting no. 1 on the daily chart) I think. Perhaps if BF itself has some great deals, people will be more likely to post some impressions here.

Overall it feels very much like a down year: few hugely anticipated games, no big bundle with the newest smash hit plus a cheap console, and overall very few big deals in the run-up.
 

pld

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,879
Don't worry next year will be very crowded with new consoles launching and Nintendo (hopefully) having a good bundle.
 

Welfare

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,027
The Switch dominating so hard this year killed a lot of buzz surrounding NPD threads it seems.

I remember people going nuts at this period of the year the previous years.
It's been a pretty terrible year for PS4/XB1. How well Switch does this month will determine how December plays out in terms of excitement.

Things should pick up next year as we have new consoles and the potential of a Switch Pro.
 

DeuceGamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,602
No numbers, most insiders left, end of the gen, not much to talk about.
This is more than likely it. I’ve been just as excited this year, but it makes it difficult to drive meaningful discussions when we don’t have any details to discuss.

Do we even have any of the retail workers that can post musings?

I wonder just how large of a drop we see from Sony/MS and how much Nintendo is able to move over the holidays as well as a ton of software that is interesting across the board.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,759
The Netherlands
Benji mentioned that from what he can see, it looks like PS4 and XB1 will be down YoY in November (not surprising I think) and Switch will be up YoY. He also said that even Black Friday week looks to be up for Switch, so we might expect a reasonable growth YoY.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,826
Switch being up YOY despite the lose of Cyber Monday in the tracking period and mild deals bode very well for December and the Holidays performance in general.

It sold 1365k last November for reference.
 

pld

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,879
Huh the PS4 bundle must have been indeed very limited then just like I mentioned earlier in the thread.
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
359
Benji expecting Switch to be up YoY for Nov 2019 NPD despite losing Cyber Monday. He also suggests that Switch had a stronger BF week than 2018 sales wise.
 

IronTed

Member
Jun 6, 2019
285
Really good month for Switch then if up YoY. The others being down is expected. Probably headed for another lopsided December as well.
 

DeuceGamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,602
Benji mentioned that from what he can see, it looks like PS4 and XB1 will be down YoY in November (not surprising I think) and Switch will be up YoY. He also said that even Black Friday week looks to be up for Switch, so we might expect a reasonable growth YoY.
I’m glad he clarified the details with additional comments. Original comments initially led me to believe PS4 may have been having a bigger November than I expected.

PS4 being down YoY was expected. Switch being up means that it is probably above the PS4 2018 total.
Depending on how much Switch is up it will be impressive considering they haven’t had any real sales. I know there were a couple minor ones, but mostly it was just bundles.
 

Lichtsang

Banned
Jan 2, 2018
4,679
So, with growth every month in most markets YoY (or at least in US and Japan) is the 20m dream alive for this year, after they missed it last year?