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October 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, November 12th

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
356
I think Sword/Shield all SKUs combined will take the unit sales record for an exclusive launch month.

Smash Ultimate did ~3.6M retail and some unknown figure for digital (<1.4M though, as NoA confirmed 5M total sales in late Jan 2019).

Pokemon will have a shorter timeframe, but more rabid buying-base and BF week to boost it along with lower entry point with Switch Lite. I think SuMo were somewhere in that 3M ballpark in 2016 anyway.
Sun/Moon did 3.7M in total (retail +digital) in NA (not US) in its first two weeks. While it's possible that Sword/Shield does more than that (I think it'll break 4M in two weeks), but digital will be a larger share of that (due to natural growth and due to vouchers). I don't think it'll beat the retail debut month of Smash as a result.
Pokémon Sword/Shield won't beat Smash Ultimate launch, i also don't know if will reach Sun/Moon performance. X/Y is a better comparation as we talk about the first entry on the console. X/Y sold 1.7 million in 4 weeks, Sword/Shield will do a lot better than that for sure but at least this time i don't expect record breaking.
I'm keeping this rolling! :D

What we know:

Back in January I think we remarked that digital share for Smash in Dec must have been around 900K (~20%), as that would peg January figures at 4-500K. Any lower digital % in Dec would result in massive January figures (5M cumulative reported on 1/31, so presumably through 1/30, which would mean that 1/31 - 2/2 would add in additional January sales).

Don't think we can say definitively which had the bigger 2-day opening, seems to close to call. Story from here on out:

Smash has 4 Dec weeks following its launch; Pokemon only has 2.​
SwSh have Black Friday week included; Smash did not.​
Smash had demand concentrated in its launch month of December.​
Pokemon has demand that can be spread over the remaining 6 weeks of the year, which means less concentration in its opening month.​
Don't think we'll ever know the true outcome of this face-off, but its more likely that SwSh will fail to match Smash's NPD launch month record, given everything we know. We'll see what kind of picture we can construct with the NPD/NoA drip-fed info that will come out over the next few weeks.
 
Jul 28, 2019
2,461
So with Pokemon's numbers (2 million in 3 days, holy shit...), what kind of analogous hardware performance are we expecting from the Switch?
 
Jul 28, 2019
2,461
It's not just Pokémon that is a major factor: Black Friday is another huge hardware event. I think we will see more units sold than last year (wasn't last year 1.2M?), so maybe up to 1.5M.
I didn’t want to cite Black Friday owing to the absence of what appears to be aggressive deals, though I suppose Switch Lite counteracts that to a very large degree.
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
356
It's not just Pokémon that is a major factor: Black Friday is another huge hardware event. I think we will see more units sold than last year (wasn't last year 1.2M?), so maybe up to 1.5M.
Last year was 1.36M w/Cyber Monday falling in the November period (Dec period would have lost a middling January week and replaced it with a strong Cyber Monday week last year, which would have pushed it closer to 2M).

This year has no Cyber Monday in Nov but a lower price-point, more lingering SW momentum, and SwSh. Oh AND Ring Fit Adventure. Same bundle as last year (MK8D + Pre-Rev OG Switch @299.99), but 1P software is getting discounted (SMO/MK8D/SPA2/BOTW/etc. @$40.00).

I think 1.5-1.8M will be the range.

Ballparking last year:

W1: 100K
W2: 250K (LGPE)
W3: 760K (Hol/Black Friday)
W4: 250K (Cyber Monday)

NOV18: 1,360

Ballparking this year:

W1: 200K (Luigi's Mansion + SwSh Lite Boost)
W2: 300K (SwSh)
W3: 200K (Nothing)
W4: 1,000K (Hol/Black Friday)

NOV19: 1,700K
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
356
PS4 outsold Switch last year? In November?
Going by Benji's reporting, Switch seemed to outsell it all month + Cyber Monday, but PS4 had a 199.99 Slim w/Spider-Man bundle available during the holiday week that basically went nuclear on the Saturday before Thanksgiving. PS4 probably sold like the peak-Wii that week and it was enough to offset the Switch's lead the other 3 weeks. But not enough stock to outsell it's own Nov 2017 result (~1.7M).

That's just based on Benji's data, but that story is logical.

This year's bundle is arguably even crazier lol, but saturation is also a factor.
 

skittzo0413

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,928
Yeah black Friday is about deals, not overall price. Even with a $199 Lite the deals aren't amazing so I don't think it's going to light the charts on fire. Pokemon might help it though. I don't think it'll be down YoY but it won't be that far up either.
 

pld

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,790
Huh. Then honestly it could well happen again this year, especially given how aggressive Sony’s bundles are.
The PS4 had the Spider-man bundle for $199 last year which was an amazing deal (eventhough it was quickly sold out). And yes I have been saying for a while that November will be the only month this year where Sony or Microsoft have a realistic chance to sell more consoles than Nintendo.
 

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,947
It's not just Pokémon that is a major factor: Black Friday is another huge hardware event. I think we will see more units sold than last year (wasn't last year 1.2M?), so maybe up to 1.5M.
NSW Lite at $199 or lower during Black Friday coupled with games with mass appeal like Pokemon.

PS4 outsold Switch last year? In November?
In the last few yearsXBO and PS4 have sold more in November than in December.
This trend hasn't happened yet for NSW.
 
Jul 28, 2019
2,461
Sony had Spider-Man and PS4 for 199 dollars, that was a crazy deal. Both systems' bundle sold out, btw.
The PS4 had the Spider-man bundle for $199 last year which was an amazing deal (eventhough it was quickly sold out). And yes I have been saying for a while that November will be the only month this year where Sony or Microsoft have a realistic chance to sell more consoles than Nintendo.
Yeah, but there's an even more aggressive bundle ($200 1TB Slim with TLOU, Horizon, and GoW) on offer this year, so I do think there is a not insignificant chance of that happening again.

I thought it was through the weekend, wouldn't that be three days?

In the last few yearsXBO and PS4 have sold more in November than in December.
This trend hasn't happened yet for NSW.
I see. I guess it depends on when the Switch's price starts being more elastic, since November shopping is more about price.

Going by Benji's reporting, Switch seemed to outsell it all month + Cyber Monday, but PS4 had a 199.99 Slim w/Spider-Man bundle available during the holiday week that basically went nuclear on the Saturday before Thanksgiving. PS4 probably sold like the peak-Wii that week and it was enough to offset the Switch's lead the other 3 weeks. But not enough stock to outsell it's own Nov 2017 result (~1.7M).

That's just based on Benji's data, but that story is logical.

This year's bundle is arguably even crazier lol, but saturation is also a factor.
True, I suppose, the overall baseline for PS4 is far lower this year than last year, thanks to saturation as you point out, plus lowered momentum with next gen around the corner, and Sony's first party hits being relatively more middling commercially this year than last year (where God of War and Spider-Man gave the console insane momentum).
 

PillFencer

Member
Nov 15, 2018
730
I thought it was through the weekend, wouldn't that be three days?
NPD tracking goes from Sunday to Saturday and they said 2 days anyway https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20191121005357/en/Pokémon-Sword-Pokémon-Shield-Sales-Exceed-6
REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Additionally, the games sold just over 2 million copies in the first two days in the U.S., making it the highest-grossing launch of any Pokémon game.
 

GamingCJ

Member
Apr 14, 2019
460
In the end stock limits will decide which console will take the crown for November.
IIRC last year's $199 Spidey Bundle was sold out on Tuesday, so within 48 hours and 3 days before Black Friday.
Consumer demand might have decreased since then, but this years PS4 Bundle and the Pro will still sell like hot cakes.
 

Elandyll

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
4,395
Huh. Then honestly it could well happen again this year, especially given how aggressive Sony’s bundles are.
Could be. The $199 bundles are good, and as usual the supply will be a major factor.

Also, normally the Pro would not be a consideration, but I think this is the first time it's being discounted by $100?
Again, stocks.
 
Jul 28, 2019
2,461
Could be. The $199 bundles are good, and as usual the supply will be a major factor.

Also, normally the Pro would not be a consideration, but I think this is the first time it's being discounted by $100?
Again, stocks.
I don't think the Pro will be a necessarily major factor for the same reason I don't think the Switch Mario Kart bundle is going to be that big: it comes down to price. $299 is out of the Holiday shopping price category.
 
Jul 28, 2019
2,461
The same Mario Kart bundle was really big last year tho
The Mario Kart 8 Deluxe bundle sold extremely well last year. It was also limited in stock and sold out rapidly.
I'm not saying it won't be "big" period, I just don't think it represents what a true aggressive Switch bundle/offer in the Holiday shopping season could do. I think this year, the Lite is likelier to be the bigger mover than the base model is (this month specifically).
 

pld

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,790
The same Mario Kart bundle was really big last year tho
I really don't know what I should think about the potential of the bundle. On the one hand it sounds lame selling the same bundle as last year for the same price and it's not even the new model. On the other hand I wonder how many people are aware of the new model or simply don't care about it and will buy it regardless.
 

Rion

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,045
I wonder how many PS4 owners would upgrade to a Pro if it were $249 even although most people know PS5 is coming this time next year.

It’s going to be intriguing to see how Sony position the Slim and Pro once PS5 launches. Will it all be seen as the same eco system like the Xbox consoles and Switch or will Sony be sure to clearly define PS5 as a separate entity.

I suppose it depends on if Sony make their PS5 in house games cross gen or not.
 

abellwillring

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,398
Austin, TX
I wonder how many PS4 owners would upgrade to a Pro if it were $249 even although most people know PS5 is coming this time next year.
I have 2 PS4s (one launch and one Pro) and really wanted that limited edition Death Stranding one.. I was so tempted to get it to replace the base one but ultimately couldn't convince myself of the worth since we just have one 4K TV. If it was $250 (or $300 with the game) I probably woulda snagged it though.
 
Nov 2, 2017
2,446
Italy
I would love to see BIG numbers for Switch this year but i think people underestimate how important is Cyber Monday those days.
Of course that only mean that december sales will be better, aka not big deal, but for November i would be surprised to see more than 1.5 million for Switch.
 

IronTed

Member
Jun 6, 2019
277
Last edited:

Welfare

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,993
PS4 ain't winning a month ever again lol

Remember the PS4 barely won last November even with the insane $199 Spidey bundle. That was also following massive sales momentum from Spidey, Black Ops 4, and Red Dead.
 

slavesnyder

Member
Oct 26, 2017
919
SlaveSnyder Media Corp.
PS4 ain't winning a month ever again lol

Remember the PS4 barely won last November even with the insane $199 Spidey bundle. That was also following massive sales momentum from Spidey, Black Ops 4, and Red Dead.
they could if they sacrificed profit for penetration. i guess 150 could be doable, but it's not worth it for a blue ribbon in the pigs contest.
also, switch is not the biggest competition anyway now that we have stadia.
 
OP
OP

donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
403
Since not all the results are public, no numerical results are shown here. Also, the rankings are just a counter, so if two users are tied, it is not reflected in these results. To prevent backing out the numbers, only the monthly results for the top 3 predictors are shown. Annual results are still full results, though.

NPD Prediction Results - October 2019

Units

1. Jeean
2. IronTed
3. Ryng Manuel Tolu


Points
Code:
     October 2019                    Overall 2019 Top (8/10)
01.  Jeean                  ---.--   Lelouch0612            ---.--
02.  IronTed                ---.--   Kaveri                 ---.--
03.  Ryng Manuel Tolu       ---.--   CosmicBolt             ---.--
04.                         ---.--   Myriotes               ---.--
05.                         ---.--   James                  ---.--
06.                         ---.--   Ryng Manuel Tolu       ---.--
07.                         ---.--   Jeean                  ---.--
08.                         ---.--   Andromeda              ---.--
09.                         ---.--   TurnoftheCentury       ---.--
10.                         ---.--   Sterok                 ---.--
11.                         ---.--   Zedark                 ---.--
12.                         ---.--   gargles                ---.--
13.                         ---.--   score01                ---.--
14.                         ---.--   Welfare                ---.--
15.                         ---.--   pitseleh               ---.--
16.                         ---.--   cakely                 ---.--
17.                         ---.--   Corporate Clown        ---.--
18.                         ---.--   donny2112              ---.--
19.                         ---.--   jroc74                 ---.--
20.                         ---.--   Bitch Pudding          ---.--
21.                         ---.--   slavesnyder            ---.--
22.                         ---.--   KillerMan91            ---.--
23.                         ---.--   WestEgg                ---.--
24.                         ---.--   kyo2004                ---.--
25.                         ---.--   Hammer24               ---.--
26.                         ---.--   Astrogamer             ---.--
27.                         ---.--   Moltres006             ---.--
28.                         ---.--   Darth Smurf X          ---.--
29.                         ---.--   El Manco               ---.--
30.                         ---.--   julian                 ---.--
31.                         ---.--   Elandyll               ---.--
32.                         ---.--   Pachter                ---.--
33.                         ---.--   Slarvax                ---.--
34.                         ---.--   ThatRandomCliff        ---.--
35.                         ---.--   plusaflag              ---.--
36.                         ---.--   wilmbreak              ---.--
37.                         ---.--   Limabean01             ---.--
38.                         ---.--   IronTed                ---.--
39.                         ---.--   Doctor Mario           ---.--
40.                         ---.--   useyourloaf            ---.--
41.                         ---.--   DeuceGamer             ---.--
42.                         ---.--   SinCItyAssassin        ---.--
43.                         ---.--   MANUELF                ---.--
44.                         ---.--   Keith Stat             ---.--
45.                         ---.--   404LinkNotFound        ---.--
46.                         ---.--   brykuhn91              ---.--
47.                         ---.--   Mercenary09            ---.--
48.                         ---.--   Quintus                ---.--
49.                         ---.--   Peek-a-boo!            ---.--
50.                         ---.--   GamingCJ               ---.--
Congratulations, Jeean! :D
 
OP
OP

donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
403
#1 Predictor, for reference
[NSW] 312k
[PS4] 172k
[XB1] 111k
---------------------------

Since not all the results are public, this is a "Just for Fun" ranking. The way it works is that the #1 predictor for the month using the actual results is assumed to be 100% correct, and everyone else is measured accordingly. These results are not official and not used in the annual rankings. Since the real results can't be shown, these are a substitute to be used "Just for Fun." (^_^)

ResetERA "Just for Fun" Prediction Results - October 2019
Note: Uses #1 predictor as "truth" and measures everyone else relative to them.


1. Jeean - 0
2. Limabean01 - 25,000
2. Peek-a-boo! - 25,000
2. Welfare - 25,000
5. julian - 26,000
6. Kaveri - 28,000
7. Lelouch0612 - 29,000
7. pitseleh - 29,000
7. useyourloaf - 29,000
10. Zedark - 30,000
11. CosmicBolt - 31,000
11. jroc74 - 31,000
13. Andromeda - 33,000
13. Sterok - 33,000
15. Elandyll - 35,000
16. Hammer24 - 36,000
17. IronTed - 39,000
17. KillerMan91 - 39,000
19. Darth Smurf X - 40,000
19. score01 - 40,000
21. TurnoftheCentury - 41,000
21. gargles - 41,000
23. Corporate Clown - 43,000
24. Astrogamer - 44,000
24. Myriotes - 44,000
26. Luke88 - 46,000
27. donny2112 - 49,000
28. Ryng Manuel Tolu - 53,000
29. WestEgg - 54,000
30. Xevross - 55,000
30. cakely - 55,000
32. El Manco - 58,000
32. slavesnyder - 58,000
34. Slarvax - 63,000
35. Mr Swine - 69,000
36. wilmbreak - 71,000
37. James - 72,000
38. Pachter - 89,000
39. Bitch Pudding - 110,000
 

julian

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,128
My best month yet! I no longer feel shame posting in this thread....November/December will destroy new. Lol.
 

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,370
PS4 ain't winning a month ever again lol

Remember the PS4 barely won last November even with the insane $199 Spidey bundle. That was also following massive sales momentum from Spidey, Black Ops 4, and Red Dead.
That Spiderman bundle was stock limited though. Without stock limitations PS4 would had won by decent (or big) margin. I mean I don't think PS4 wins this year either but it will be interesting to see how many of those $199 bundles Sony ships this year . It could be of course that PS4 has hit high enough saturation point that they don't sell out anymore. I guess we will see.
 

pld

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,790
That Spiderman bundle was stock limited though. Without stock limitations PS4 would had won by decent (or big) margin. I mean I don't think PS4 wins this year either but it will be interesting to see how many of those $199 bundles Sony ships this year . It could be of course that PS4 has hit high enough saturation point that they don't sell out anymore. I guess we will see.
The Mario Kart 8 Switch bundle had limited stock as well so we can't really tell if it would have been a big margin or not.
 

IronTed

Member
Jun 6, 2019
277
Congrats to Jeean!

And wow, that's my best ever. Well it's almost certainly down from here for me ha
 

Xevross

Member
Oct 28, 2017
540
Not the most robust analysis, perhaps someone else could narrow these ranges down a bit further, but this is what I managed to find
Pretty confident in these numbers now:

310k < Switch < 318k
PS4 < 155k
XB1 < 113k

Most of us were quite high on PS4 and XB1 it seems, so I couldn't work out a lower bound for them. I think those are pretty terrible October numbers, so its hardly surprising. PS4 down at least 55% YOY and XB1 down over 46%.

Switch seems to have done about as well as expected though, 21-25% up YoY is a good result.

EDIT: updated my ranges. 99% certain that they can't be improved, so no lower bounds for PS4/ XB1 unfortunately. I doubt they'd be much lower than those numbers though, its October!
 
Last edited:

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,633
2020 hardware numbers will be awful for anything not named Switch.

The release slate starting in March is very strong for 3 months so there is that. Limited edition consoles could push the numbers and would be a good strategy.
 

Horns

Member
Dec 7, 2018
945
I don't know the answers, but I think software sales in 2020 for PS4/XB1 are more telling.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,633
I don't know the answers, but I think software sales in 2020 for PS4/XB1 are more telling.
Oh I think software sales will be particularly strong well into 2020 ans 2021.

However, slowing hardware sales tells us something else. Maybe, the software released this year was addressed to the core with few games expanding the audience of these consoles.

We must not forger that software is the key factor into expanding a console lifecycle. Pokemon Red/Blue showed it with the GB, Kinect with the X360 and Fortnite last year.