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October 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, November 12th

donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
405
ITT, predict for the NPD October 2019 retail period (October 6-November 2, 2019) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but SalesEra followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?
Trust me said:
To have fun? To share thoughts and speculation with a like mined group of people? To be able to communicate directly with individuals who study this industry for a living?
ethomaz said:
Since 2010 I guess we don't get official numbers anymore... that doesn't mean we don't get the numbers.

The ranking and results are based in real numbers.
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Tuesday, November 12th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: October 6-November 2, 2019 (4 weeks, September was 5 weeks)
NPD Results Release: Thursday, November 14 @ 4 p.m. EST (public thread posted later @ ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Format:

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K      [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000   [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000    [XB1] - 200000

Potential hardware impacting events in October:
Lull before Black November storm?

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

September's #1 Predictor (results not public)
[NSW] 410k
[PS4] 205k
[XB1] 135k
September 2018 NPD thread
October 2018 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
Last edited:

Saint-14

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
13,470
Is there a point in doing these when we don’t get numbers? Or OP can access them somehow?
 

Welfare

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,013
Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of September and October. This is where comparing weekly averages is better than simple month to month because September is a 5 week month while October is only 4. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for October to help show how the month might be impacted.

Code:
2012

Xbox 360 September: 270K / 5 = 54,000
Xbox 360 October: 270K / 4 = 67,500

Weekly average +25%

PS3 September: 201K / 5 = 40,200
PS3 October: 170K / 4 = 42,500

Weekly average +6%

3DS September: 243K / 5 = 48,600
3DS October: 245K / 4 = 61,250

Weekly average +26%

Notable Events in October

Xbox 360
Kinect Adventures + Kinect Disney Adventures 4GB Kinect Holiday Bundle $299 [3 weeks] 
Price cut to $249 the following week
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim + Forza Motorsport 4 250GB Bundle $299 [3 weeks]
Price cut to $249 the following week

NBA 2K13 [4 weeks]
Medal of Honor: Warfighter [1 week]
Resident Evil 6 [4 weeks]
Dishonored [3 weeks]

PS3
NBA 2K13 [4 weeks]
Resident Evil 6 [4 weeks]
Medal of Honor: Warfighter [1 week]
Dishonored [3 weeks]
Code:
2013

Xbox 360 September: 173K / 5 = 34,600
Xbox 360 October: 166K / 4 =41,500

Weekly average +20%

PS3 September: 209K / 5 = 41,800
PS3 October: 119K / 4 = 29,750

Weekly average -29%

3DS September: 209K / 5 = 41,800
3DS October: 452K / 4 = 113,000

Weekly average +170%

Notable Events in October

Xbox 360
Halo 4 + Tomb Raider 250GB bundle $249 [3 weeks]
Kinect Adventures + Kinect Sports: Season Two + Kinect 4GB bundle $249 [3 weeks]
Forza Horizon + Kinect Adventures + Kinect Sports: Season Two + Kinect 250GB bundle $349 [3 weeks]

Battlefield 4 [1 week]
Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag [1 week]
Batman: Arkham Origins [2 weeks]

PS3
Battlefield 4 [1 week]
Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag [1 week]
Batman: Arkham Origins [2 weeks]

3DS
Electric Blue 2DS $129 [3 weeks]
Crimson Red 2DS $129 [3 weeks]

Pokémon X [4 weeks]
Pokémon Y [4 weeks]
Code:
2014

Xbox One September: 284K / 5 = 56,800
Xbox One October: 168K / 4 =42,000

Weekly average -26%

PS4 September: 538K / 5 = 107,600
PS4 October: 297K / 4 = 74,250

Weekly average -31%

3DS September: 140K / 5 = 28,000
3DS October: 138K / 4 = 34,500

Weekly average +23%

Xbox 360 September: 74K / 5 = 14,800
Xbox 360 October: 63K / 4 =15,750

Weekly average +6%

PS3 September: 46K / 5 = 9,200
PS3 October: 35K / 4 = 8,750

Weekly average -5%

Notable Events in October

Xbox One
Price cut announced for November $349 [October 27th] [1 week]

Sunset Overdrive White model 500GB bundle $399 [1 week]

NBA 2K15 [4 weeks]
Sunset Overdrive [1 week] [110K]
The Evil Within [3 weeks] [103K]

PS4
NBA 2K15 [4 weeks]
The Evil Within [3 weeks] [175K]

3DS
Retro NES Special Themed XL $199 [Gamestop] [4 weeks]

Xbox 360
Call of Duty: Ghosts + Call of Duty: Black Ops II 500GB Blue model bundle $249 [Walmart] [4 weeks]
Kinect Adventures + Kinect Sports + Forza Horizon + Kinect 4GB bundle $249 [Target] [4 weeks]
Code:
2015 

Xbox One September: 292K / 5 = 58,400
Xbox One October: 303K / 4 = 75,750

Weekly average +30%

PS4 September: 354K / 5 = 70,800
PS4 October: 275K / 4 = 68,750

Weekly average -3%

3DS September: 123K / 5 = 24,600
3DS October: 110K / 4 = 27,500

Weekly average +12%

Notable Events in October

Xbox One
Halo 5 Limited 1TB bundle $499 [2 weeks] [~93K]
Gears of War: Ultimate Edition + Rare Replay + Ori 1TB Holiday Bundle $399 [1 week]
Dance Central Spotlight + Kinect Sports Rivals + Zoo Tycoon + Kinect Bundle $499 [1 week]
LEGO Movie 500GB bundle $349 [4 weeks]

50-Inch 1080p TV Bundle $799 @ Target [1 week]
Gamestop Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $100 towards Xbox One [2 weeks]

Halo 5 [1 week] [842K]
Assassin’s Creed Syndicate [2 weeks] [168K]

PS4
500GB $349 [4 weeks]

Gamestop Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $100 towards PS4 [2 weeks]

Uncharted Collection Bundle $349 [4 weeks] [>145K]

Assassin’s Creed Syndicate [2 weeks] [223K]
Uncharted Collection [4 weeks] [<165K]

3DS
Hyrule Edition New 3DS XL $199 [Gamestop] [1 week]

The Legend of Zelda: Tri Force Heroes [2 weeks]
Code:
2016

Xbox One September: 333K / 5 = 66,600
Xbox One October: 329K / 4 = 82,250

Weekly average +23%

PS4 September: 285K / 5 = 57,000
PS4 October: 333K / 4 = 58,750

Weekly average +3%

3DS September: 172K / 5 = 43,000
3DS October: 123K / 4 = 30,750

Weekly average -28%

Notable Events in October

Xbox One
Xbox One S Gears of War 4 Limited 2TB Bundle $449 [4 weeks] + Gears of War 4 1TB bundle $349 [3 weeks] [93K total]

Xbox One S Battlefield 1 500GB bundle $299 [2 weeks] + Battlefield 1 1TB Military Green Limited bundle $349 [2 weeks] [42K total]

Battlefield 1 [2 weeks] [605K]
Gears of War 4 [3 weeks] [415K]
Mafia III [4 weeks] [193K]
Skyrim Special Edition [1 week]
Titanfall 2 [1 week]

PS4
PlayStation VR $399
PlayStation VR Launch Bundle  $499

Battlefield 1 [2 weeks] [644K]
Mafia III [4 weeks] [310K]
Skyrim Special Edition [1 week]
Titanfall 2 [1 week]
Code:
2017

Xbox One September: ~180K / 5 = ~36,000
Xbox One October: 129K / 4 = 32,250

Weekly average -10%

PS4 September: ~300K / 5 = ~60,000
PS4 October: 211K / 4 = 52,750

Weekly average -12%

Notable Events in October

Xbox One
Minecraft Limited 1TB Bundle $399 [Target] [4 weeks]
Middle-Earth: Shadow of War 1TB Bundle $349 [GameStop] [3 weeks]
Minecraft Complete Adventure Bundle 500GB $279 [Target] [2 weeks]
Assassin’s Creed Origins w/ Rainbow Six Siege 1TB Bundle $349 [1 week]
Halo 5 + MCC 500GB Bundle $279 [Walmart] [1 week]

Middle-Earth: Shadow of War [3 weeks]
Assassin’s Creed Origins [1 week]
Forza Motorsport 7 [4 weeks] 
South Park: The Fractured But Whole [2 weeks]
Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus [1 week]

PS4
Middle-Earth: Shadow of War [3 weeks] 
Assassin’s Creed Origins [1 week]
South Park: The Fractured But Whole [2 weeks]
Gran Turismo Sport [2 weeks]
Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus [1 week]
Code:
2018

Switch September: 260K / 5 = 52,000
Switch October: 255K / 4 = 63,750

Weekly average +23%

Xbox One September: 175K / 5 = 35,000
Xbox One October: 212K / 4 = 53,000

Weekly average +51%

PS4 September: 425K / 5 = 85,000
PS4 October: 342K / 4 = 85,500

Weekly average +1% 

Notable Events in October

Switch
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle $359 [1 week]
Diablo III Eternal Collection Bundle $359 [GameStop] [1 week]

Diablo III Eternal Collection [1 week]

Xbox One
$100 off every Xbox One w/ purchase of Red Dead Redemption 2 Oct 25 - Nov 3 [GameStop/Best Buy]
Gamestop Deal - Trade in XB1, Switch, or PS4 and get up to $300 towards Xbox One X + State of Decay 2 Offer valid 10/8 - 10/28*

*The above two deals actually stacked when dates matched, also second deal wasn’t strict on what bundle you could get.

Xbox One S Fortnite 1TB Bundle $299 [Best Buy]
Xbox One X Fallout 76 1TB Robot White Limited Bundle $499 [GameStop]

Call of Duty Black Ops 4 [4 weeks] 
Red Dead Redemption 2 [2 weeks]

PS4
PS4 Pro Red Dead Redemption 2 1TB Bundle $399 [2 weeks]

Call of Duty Black Ops 4 [4 weeks] 
Red Dead Redemption 2 [2 weeks]
Code:
2019 September Weekly Averages Using #1 Predictor 

Switch: ~410K  / 5 = ~82,000
PS4: ~205K / 5 = ~41,000 
Xbox One: ~135K / 5 = ~27,000 

Notable Events in October

Switch
Ring Fit Adventure [3 weeks]
Luigi's Mansion 3 [1 week]

Xbox One
Xbox One X $399 / Xbox One S $249 / Xbox One SAD $199 [October 25 - November 3]

Gamestop Deal - Trade in XB1, Switch, or PS4 and get up to $300 towards Xbox One X 10/6 - 11/2

Call of Duty Modern Warfare [2 weeks]
The Outer Worlds [2 weeks]

PS4
PS4 Pro Call of Duty Modern Warfare Bundle $399 [2 weeks]

Call of Duty Modern Warfare [2 weeks]
The Outer Worlds [2 weeks]
Notes

October is right before the two biggest months of the year but still sees some of the biggest launches of the year. Depending on the games released and the hardware deals and bundles, consoles can actually have a better weekly average than September. Doesn’t mean sales will be massive, in fact in recent years, October can be seen as underperforming thanks to sales going into November for Black Friday.

Xbox
Xbox is pretty much the Q4/holiday console and it shows in October. Two instances of its weekly average dropping are in 2014 and 2017 following Destiny and Destiny 2. These were then followed by absolute massive November increases.

2015, 2016, and 2018 were big improvements over September, with Halo 5 (2015), Gears of War 4 and Battlefield 1 (2016), and Call of Duty Black Ops 4, Red Dead Redemption 2, a price promotion and trade in deal (2018).

2019 sees the release of the largest Call of Duty launch all generation, Modern Warfare. In addition, a quick one week price drop on the One S and SAD by $50, and the One X by $100. GameStop also had another $300 trade in deal for the One X that lasted the whole month. After the Bundle-mania of September and the launch of Gears 5, Borderlands 3, and NBA, it’s up in the air how much the XB1 can improve this month.

The Xbox One has averaged +14% in weekly average sales in October, going as high as +51% (2018) and the lowest drop of -26% (2014).

PlayStation
PlayStation, compared to Xbox, doesn’t really improve but usually maintains sales going into October. 2016 saw a raise thanks to a price drop and Slim launch in September, and 2018 had the 2 biggest launches of the year coming right off the biggest Sony exclusive launch ever in September.

PS4,also saw a massive drop in 2014 because of the huge Destiny launch with a bundle in early September. 2015 saw a slight drop in 2015 despite a $50 price drop thanks to the imminent releases of the Black Ops 3 and Star Wars Battlefront bundles in November. 2017 went down thanks to Destiny 2 in September.

With the launch of Modern Warfare, that honestly should be enough for PS4 to see the largest growth in weekly average for October all gen considering how low it went in September.

The PS4 has averaged -8% in weekly average sales in October, going as high as +3% (2016) and as low as -31% (2014) Subtract 2014 and the average gets bumped to -3%.

Nintendo
The 3DS averages a rise of +41% thanks to Pokemon month. Without it and 2016 (the only drop) it averages +20% with the smallest rise being +12% (2015) and the largest rise being +26% (2012).

3DS pretty much is the only console to rise from September pretty much every year.

Following the launch of the Lite, Nintendo has two exclusive that will help keep sales good in the interim for the holidays in Ring Fit Adventure and Luigi’s Mansion 3. Keeping a sales average consistant or growing right after a massive model launch is difficult, so a decrease in weekly average should be expected.

Recap
October can be an improvement depending on releases and pricing, but with Black Friday becoming bigger and bigger, October results could be lower than most predict from it.

The biggest October ever recorded during the 7th gen was the Wii with 803K back in 2008. Second biggest? Wii again with 519K in 2007.

The biggest October ever recorded during the 8th gen was the PS4 with 342K in 2018. Second biggest? Xbox One with 329K in 2016.
 

Peek-a-boo!

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,769
Woodbridge
Is there a point in doing these when we don’t get numbers? Or OP can access them somehow?
It’s just a bit of fun at this point, and I believe donny has a way of finding out who’s the nearest person to the actual result.

When does/did the Pokèmon Lite launch? In Japan is was November 1st, what about US?
It comes out in five days time, on Friday the 8th of November.

On Amazon it's charting really high (#9 on the monthly chart) and considering it has a higher price than a normal game I would not be surprised if it charted high on the NPD chart too.
Incredibly, ‘Ring Fit Adventure’ is doing much better than the experimental VR cardboard bobbins.

As for my predictions this month:

[NSW] 320K
[PS4] 180K
[XB1] 120K
 

Luke88

Member
Dec 29, 2018
508
On Amazon it's charting really high (#9 on the monthly chart) and considering it has a higher price than a normal game I would not be surprised if it charted high on the NPD chart too.
browsing Amazon from time to time it seems the game is already selling for 69.99 so I don't think the bump will be significant, still I expect Ring Fit to sell really well (for a new IP) since it's selling extremely well in other territories too.


[NSW] 317K
[PS4] 193K
[XB1] 131K
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
356
I know SwSh are Nov releases, but I'm sure we'll be discussing their launch in here in two weeks. So just to spark discussion:

I think Sword/Shield all SKUs combined will take the unit sales record for an exclusive launch month.

Smash Ultimate did ~3.6M retail and some unknown figure for digital (<1.4M though, as NoA confirmed 5M total sales in late Jan 2019).

Pokemon will have a shorter timeframe, but more rabid buying-base and BF week to boost it along with lower entry point with Switch Lite. I think SuMo were somewhere in that 3M ballpark in 2016 anyway.
And Zedark's counter.

Sun/Moon did 3.7M in total (retail +digital) in NA (not US) in its first two weeks. While it's possible that Sword/Shield does more than that (I think it'll break 4M in two weeks), but digital will be a larger share of that (due to natural growth and due to vouchers). I don't think it'll beat the retail debut month of Smash as a result.
 
Nov 2, 2017
2,448
Italy
I know SwSh are Nov releases, but I'm sure we'll be discussing their launch in here in two weeks. So just to spark discussion:



And Zedark's counter.
Pokémon Sword/Shield won't beat Smash Ultimate launch, i also don't know if will reach Sun/Moon performance. X/Y is a better comparation as we talk about the first entry on the console. X/Y sold 1.7 million in 4 weeks, Sword/Shield will do a lot better than that for sure but at least this time i don't expect record breaking.
 

Limabean01

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,203
WA, australia
I know SwSh are Nov releases, but I'm sure we'll be discussing their launch in here in two weeks. So just to spark discussion:



And Zedark's counter.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but vouchers could no longer be bought after July in the US, right? Shouldn’t we expect them to have less and less of an effect as time passes in the US?

More on topic, I think it’ll be actually very close to S/M’s launch, which is a great thing. Furthermore, that game was artificially boosted/front loaded by the Pokémon go insanity; this time, the sales are natural and should lead to longer legs. So, even if it opens slightly lower, I’m 99% sure it’ll outsell sun and moon easily in the long run.
 

slavesnyder

Member
Oct 26, 2017
927
SlaveSnyder Media Corp.
after pokemon go, which wasn't a proper pokemon game, and let's go, whitch was still no proper pokemon game, we will see how swsh will play out. if it's the real deal, a true and honest pokemon game, it will not only sell extremely well, but also frustrate a lot of kids who had first contact with the go-games, facing a game without waggle and fancy stuff.
 

pld

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,818
I am actually more curious how the Switch will sell in November after we have seen the Black Friday bundle (Switch + MK8 Deluxe for $299). It's pretty much the same bundle as last year except this time it's the new revision with better battery life.
I am not gonna lie and will say that I expected a better deal this year ($250 + game). I don't know how well it will sell in November, a month where deal (and enough stock) is king but maybe they thought the cheaper Lite and Pokémon alone are enough and don't need a bigger discount.
I wonder what other people think about it.
 
Nov 2, 2017
2,448
Italy
I am actually more curious how the Switch will sell in November after we have seen the Black Friday bundle (Switch + MK8 Deluxe for $299). It's pretty much the same bundle as last year except this time it's the new revision with better battery life.
I am not gonna lie and will say that I expected a better deal this year ($250 + game). I don't know how well it will sell in November, a month where deal (and enough stock) is king but maybe they thought the cheaper Lite and Pokémon alone are enough and don't need a bigger discount.
I wonder what other people think about it.
I really hope we'll see a 250$ bundle for OG Switch.

After 2 Blackfl Friday at 300$, i think it will make a huge difference. Lite at 200$ also surely help but many people just want the original concept.
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
356
So looks like the $299.99 MK8D bundle is going to be clearing stock of the older OG model, not the revision.

We're at month 33 / 3rd holiday/BF and they have not let the price dip under the original $299.99 yet for the OG model. Wonder if they'll do more aggressive December deals to make-up for the lack of SSS tier software launch.
 

pld

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,818
Oh wow it's even the old model?
Now I feel very confident when I said a few months ago that PS4 might take November with a very attractive bundle and enough stock.
 

DeuceGamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,594
I guess Nintendo is confident enough to their FY Target that they aren’t going to drop the price, even on Black Friday.

I wonder if they are concerned that dropping the price of the OG Switch, would devalue the Switch Lite.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,659
I guess Nintendo is confident enough to their FY Target that they aren’t going to drop the price, even on Black Friday.

I wonder if they are concerned that dropping the price of the OG Switch, would devalue the Switch Lite.
I said it earlier but if there was going to be a price drop on the OG, the Lite would have the same price drop to keep the price differenciation.
 

pld

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,818
But how ? How much do you expect both the PS4 and the Switch to sell this November ?
I can't tell you a specific number because I have no idea. All I know is that November is always heavily influenced by Black Friday deals and that $199 PS4 bundle with 3 games is just really good. Unless stock is limited again like last year for the Spider-man bundle I think the PS4 will take November.
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
356
This lack of aggression frames their 18M FY forecast a little better I think. Should be flat/marginally up for Q3 YoY (9.5-10M shipped).

Without considering potential December deals, I think the following is the ballpark for NSW US NPD figures:

NOV: 1.50M (375K Weekly)
DEC: 2.00M (400K Weekly)

Nov 18 vs Nov 19
Pros:​
$199.99 Switch Lite​
Pokemon SwSh vs. PGLE​
Better SW inertia (17/18 Evergreens + MM/LA/FE/AC/TW3/OW)​
Better casual/non-core draw in Ring Fit Adventure​
Cheaper Evergreens​
Cons:​
Value depreciation YoY (Same bundle offered as last year, same MSRP for OG)​
Losing Cyber Monday to December​
Dec 18 vs Dec 19

Pros:​
$199.99 Switch Lite​
Pokemon SwSh momentum​
Better SW inertia (same as above)​
Better casual/non-core draw in Ring Fit Adventure​
Cyber Monday back in December​
Cons​
No price promotions (TBD)​
Value depreciation YoY​
No Smash​
 
Nov 2, 2017
2,448
Italy
In November 2018 PS4 sold 9% more than Switch.

So far for the first 9 months PS4 is down YOY 34%, while Switch is up 23%, and this trend is looking stronger for the last few months.

I really don't see PS4 beat Switch when Lite is on the market.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,659
This lack of aggression frames their 18M FY forecast a little better I think. Should be flat/marginally up for Q3 YoY (9.5-10M shipped).

Without considering potential December deals, I think the following is the ballpark for NSW US NPD figures:

NOV: 1.50M (375K Weekly)
DEC: 2.00M (400K Weekly)

Nov 18 vs Nov 19
Pros:​
$199.99 Switch Lite​
Pokemon SwSh vs. PGLE​
Better SW inertia (17/18 Evergreens + MM/LA/FE/AC/TW3/OW)​
Better casual/non-core draw in Ring Fit Adventure​
Cheaper Evergreens​
Cons:​
Value depreciation YoY (Same bundle offered as last year, same MSRP for OG)​
Losing Cyber Monday to December​
Dec 18 vs Dec 19

Pros:​
$199.99 Switch Lite​
Pokemon SwSh momentum​
Better SW inertia (same as above)​
Better casual/non-core draw in Ring Fit Adventure​
Cyber Monday back in December​
Cons​
No price promotions (TBD)​
Value depreciation YoY​
No Smash​
I wonder whether they'll have more stock of the MK8 Switch bundle ? Last year they had a fixed quantity and sold it pretty fast.
 

slavesnyder

Member
Oct 26, 2017
927
SlaveSnyder Media Corp.
no ordinary man knows that the switch got a revision.
the black friday deal is just the switch and a game.
maybe it's too little. switch with mk plus botw for 299 would have been a far better deal and no huge loss for nintendo either.
but it's nintendo. they just like safe profit by unit as long as hardware sells nicely. why forcing a bump in sales when there's no money to earn. just like sony does.