Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation |OT11| All Hell Has Broken Loose. CONTEST INSIDE!

What the hell, did this poll change? What about my vote?

  • No, no, no..... You're seeing things.

    Votes: 36 12.7%
  • Too bad

    Votes: 18 6.3%
  • Pats hood: "This baby will get 12 teraflops to the gallon, I tell you what"

    Votes: 81 28.5%
  • Cashews

    Votes: 24 8.5%
  • A silly plastic box full of walnuts

    Votes: 25 8.8%
  • I AM A BANANA

    Votes: 42 14.8%
  • My SPOON is too BIG

    Votes: 58 20.4%

  • Total voters
    284

T0kenAussie

Member
Jan 15, 2020
122
I’m heading out from speculating for now.

I will say the issue with the thread is everyone’s made their lunch on everything being “the same” seemingly forgetting that each generation launch is a new convention of what the standard is. Just like Sony has a great 4th gen I believe MS will aswell. Microsoft is heavy into services and software which are augmented by various hardware solutions and that’s fine. Sony is a heavy hardware company with software and services to augment their consoles. Nintendo is a great maker of handheld consoles and pulled a Phoenix rising this last generation.

all hardware vendors are healthy and profitable and the divergence of strategic thinking within these 3 companies is strong enough that marking a “winner” and a “loser” will be nothing but opinion pieces.

have a great weekend everyone and I pray for our March reveals and a healthy 2020
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,663
IIRC they cut 70% of the production cost within the 1st 18 months.
The blu ray laser alone was so much.
PS3, yes. The 60GB SKU reigned supreme.

The XB360 Arcade was the most popular XB360 SKU overall in terms of sales. Especially in NA + UK.
Thanks. I'm sure Sony tipped the supply towards that SKU too.
This may be a dumb question so I apologize in advance if it is: since Sony now manufactures their own consumer SSDs is it possible or likely that they will save a significant amount of money by using their own R&D/facilities to produce the SSD going in the PS5 instead of getting it from a third-party?
They don't make the NAND chips. They're a very small player in the market overall.
Nintendo is a great maker of handheld consoles and pulled a Phoenix rising this last generation.
They've actually done it twice now.
 

gremlinz1982

Member
Aug 11, 2018
1,992
This may be a dumb question so I apologize in advance if it is: since Sony now manufactures their own consumer SSDs is it possible or likely that they will save a significant amount of money by using their own R&D/facilities to produce the SSD going in the PS5 instead of getting it from a third-party?
the one way of driving price down is if you have mass market demand. If they can get that, then it is fairly easy as long as component costs remain stable.
 

Crazy_KiD_169

Member
Jun 21, 2018
164
What I find weird is that Sony stepped in to clarify that PS5 has hardware ray tracing because rumors where all over internet saying it may not had, but now they remain silent when there is a lot of talking about PS5 being less powerful than Xbox.

Also all this thing about finding hard adjusting the price, being the bom at 450$, makes me think that they were aiming for a 400 retail product.

I want to believe that PS5 is over 12tf, but so far, in my opinion, everything is pointing to that not being the case...
They officially announced ray tracing for ps5 so of course they can clarify information that’s already out there. How powerful the ps5 is has not been officially announced so there’s nothing to clarify. Sony doesn’t have to comment on rumors, you will know what the full specs are when Sony officially announces.
In my opinion the examples you gave doesn’t point in any direction. The only real reliable rumors we got is that the consoles close from people like Jason, Matt, Klee and a few others.
 
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disco_potato

Member
Nov 16, 2017
1,436
Yeah, there's a pretty large difference between "Yeah, I have also heard the price of DRAM is increasing which will obviously affect console launches", to "I have also heard the PS5 BOM is about $450" (I think this is what he meant, personally), and "I have also heard it normally costs only $1 for console cooling systems and have also heard this time Sony are going with an unprecedentedly opulent $2 APU cooling extravaganza".
The DRAM price issue and shortage is something that was reported on in november/december. DRAM exchange and others were saying that prices would go up in the 1st quarter of 2020 due to phones and other factors. It seems like this article just took a bunch of recent news, and old data, and ran with the story.

I'll put my spinfoil hat on just in case, but let's look at the article and break it down to some extent.

1st thing 1st, there's not a single mention or usage of the word "source". I'm not saying I read these sites often enough to know how they mention the origin of the info but to not say they have a source but "people in the know".


The PS4, released in 2013 at a retail price of $399, was estimated by IHS Markit to cost $381 to manufacture. With the $450 unit cost and a similar gross margin, the PlayStation 5’s retail price would have to be at least $470.
PS4 BOM was $380, add $20 and boom $400 retail price. Now give the ps5 a BOM of $450 and add $20. You get $470 which is what they state as the absolute bottom retail price. $470 is simply an assumption.

The company’s biggest headache is ensuring a reliable supply of DRAM and NAND flash memory, with both in high demand as smartphone makers gear up for fifth-generation devices, according to people familiar with Sony’s operations.
Recent news that was heavily covered.



Most of the components for the console have been locked down, the people said, including the cooling system, which is unusually expensive at a few dollars per unit. Typically, companies would spend less than a dollar, but Sony opted to lavish more on making sure heat dissipation from the powerful chips housed inside the console isn’t an issue.
Raw metal cost alone means this is unlikely. Jet engines are not a new topic when it comes to the ps4.

People within the PlayStation business unit said a key factor in deciding the ultimate PlayStation 5 retail price will be where Microsoft sets its price for the next-generation Xbox Series X.
Simply repeating what has been said a couple weeks ago by CFO Totoki, and reported by others.


Totoki's quote

“What is not very clear or visible … is because we are competing in the space,” CFO Hiroki Totoki said, though a translator. “So it is very difficult to discuss anything about the price at this time. Depending upon the price level, we may have to determine the promotion that we are going to deploy, and how much cost we are prepared to pay. So it is a question of balance.”
About which the author of the article stated

From the look of it, Hiroki Totoki is letting us know that Sony has yet to decide on an official price for PlayStation 5. The tech giant is waiting to see exactly how much Microsoft will charge for its upcoming Xbox One Series and only after that, PlayStation 5 will be able to offer a competitive price.
This is an assumption made by another writer that bloomberg is claiming as coming from people within sony.
 

Scottoest

Member
Feb 4, 2020
129
Up until the very end of the generation, both PS3 and 360 had sold about 85 million units. Now at the end of this generation, we can envision PS4 getting close to 120 million and XBox One at 50+ million. Obviously both companies are at work trying to figure out a way to push beyond the sales ceiling around this number. We actually see Microsoft's preparation with the way they are trying to expand their ecosystem with Gamepass and Project xCloud.

Approaching this upcoming generation, you can clearly see that while Microsoft wants to battle in the traditional console space, it wants to aggressively pursue an audience that is outside of the traditional console space to break that 170 million ceiling. The question is how do you reach these people? Sony isn't going to be sitting around twirling their thumbs either. Microsoft has been outwardly more aggressive in this pursuit, but i'm sure there are ideas being brainstormed by Sony to try and figure out a way to make a new ceiling. What needs to be done to get to 200 million?
How do you twirl a thumb?
 

DamnedLife

Member
Oct 31, 2019
96
So no one will comment on this?
OK hot take incoming so please bear with me!

So, MAU is a thing and Sony is making a lot of money off of its services and most people agree that they may eat the costs for a couple months until they're profitable,
BUT what if they also choose to go MS way of selling both retail AND financing the console along with their service? Best of both worlds? So instead of getting sandwiched between two MS consoles and two price points; they go a standalone and a bundle to create their own 2 SKUs to avoid it?

Let's say their MSRP retail price for PS5 is $399 and they sell it standalone at that price eating some of the costs.

AND they go MS route of all access and do a similar thing for a bundle of
24 months of PlayStation Plus + a rebranded/reworked PlayStation Now + Playstation 5 for let's say $24.99/mo for 24 months (which is ~$599 in the end)

Which one would you choose? How would you buy your PS5?

Edit: Also if $24.99 seems low it might go up to $29.99 for ~$719 total in the end)
Edit 2: $719 makes more sense since 24 months of plus=$120 + 24 months of Now=$240 leaves $360 for PS5 and much closer to retail price
 

disco_potato

Member
Nov 16, 2017
1,436

I know a lot of people here aren't fans of AdoredTV, or even know of him, but the ending of this video is somewhat interesting.
He mentions the leaks of big navi 80cu ish card are real. The IPC gains are big as most of GCN remains have been removed. The clocks are in question as the chip is just too big. The big one though, at 20:33 in the video, RT is only included due to customer perception;not really relevant.

If it's accurate, it doesn't seem AMD are really keen on RT just yet.
 

III-V

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,967
The DRAM price issue and shortage is something that was reported on in november/december. DRAM exchange and others were saying that prices would go up in the 1st quarter of 2020 due to phones and other factors. It seems like this article just took a bunch of recent news, and old data, and ran with the story.

I'll put my spinfoil hat on just in case, but let's look at the article and break it down to some extent.

1st thing 1st, there's not a single mention or usage of the word "source". I'm not saying I read these sites often enough to know how they mention the origin of the info but to not say they have a source but "people in the know".




PS4 BOM was $380, add $20 and boom $400 retail price. Now give the ps5 a BOM of $450 and add $20. You get $470 which is what they state as the absolute bottom retail price. $470 is simply an assumption.



Recent news that was heavily covered.





Raw metal cost alone means this is unlikely. Jet engines are not a new topic when it comes to the ps4.



Simply repeating what has been said a couple weeks ago by CFO Totoki, and reported by others.


Totoki's quote



About which the author of the article stated



This is an assumption made by another writer that bloomberg is claiming as coming from people within sony.
Yeah, after reading again I see that Sony execs comments were really thrown in there to cause confusion as to who the sources are. Now I am much less confident in this story.
 

disco_potato

Member
Nov 16, 2017
1,436
So no one will comment on this?
If ps5 is $399 and XSX is $499, lockhart makes little sense to me. If both ps5 and xsx are $499, lockhart makes sense.
I would still do the standalone as 2yrs of ps plus is ~$80 and I have no interest in psnow. Saving $120 vs your financing idea.

3 people here bet on March 15th. Why? That's a Sunday
Shakespeare, the ides of march.

Yeah, after reading again I see that Sony execs comments were really thrown in there to cause confusion as to who the sources are. Now I am much less confident in this story.
Which is exactly what someone has said bloomberg does when they make some of their questionable articles.
 
Jan 19, 2020
34
To be fair... MS hasn't said anting either. More so, being silent doesn't mean there is some sort of problem. It could just mean that when they do talk they want to have a lot o meaningful things to say and show.
I agree with this. I can see silence coming from a place of confidence, as in, they knew the silence could end up frustrating people but they're confident that the console they've built will put all that to rest once it's unveiled. It's also very possible that's just wishful thinking on my part but I feel like if things were bad we'd be getting more tidbits here and there trying to soften the blow for the eventual reveal instead of just letting the narratives run wild. I have faith that whatever Sony (and Microsoft, for that matter) has designed was done so very deliberately and are going to hit the mark for whatever it is they're aiming for.
 
OP
OP
Transistor

Transistor

Now there's one thing I don't understand
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
13,391
Washington, D.C.
Good evening, ResetEra! I think it's time for more sacrifices!

What do you think, captain?



Yessir! bob100 and Brohan, please step forward! You are henceforth being judged for the crime of losing an avatar bet. Here is your punishment:

Tonight is a special night. I have gone and seen what each of you despise and I have selected accordingly.

bob100, you have a strong distaste for Zombies mode in call of duty



And Brohan, well..... Your displeasure was too specific to not take advantage of....



Captain, what do you think?



I'll take your silence as acceptance.

Until tomorrow......
 

Arkham

Member
Nov 12, 2017
38
Good evening, ResetEra! I think it's time for more sacrifices!

What do you think, captain?



Yessir! bob100 and Brohan, please step forward! You are henceforth being judged for the crime of losing an avatar bet. Here is your punishment:

Tonight is a special night. I have gone and seen what each of you despise and I have selected accordingly.

bob100, you have a strong distaste for Zombies mode in call of duty



And Brohan, well..... Your displeasure was too specific to not take advantage of....



Captain, what do you think?



I'll take your silence as acceptance.

Until tomorrow......
JESUS CHRIST
 

RoninStrife

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,843
Good evening, ResetEra! I think it's time for more sacrifices!

What do you think, captain?



Yessir! bob100 and Brohan, please step forward! You are henceforth being judged for the crime of losing an avatar bet. Here is your punishment:

Tonight is a special night. I have gone and seen what each of you despise and I have selected accordingly.

bob100, you have a strong distaste for Zombies mode in call of duty



And Brohan, well..... Your displeasure was too specific to not take advantage of....



Captain, what do you think?



I'll take your silence as acceptance.

Until tomorrow......
LMAO I hope my guess is right after this! lol.
 

AudiophileRS

Member
Apr 14, 2018
157
If you're an early adopter and you want a console, you're generally gonna get that console in that time frame . As long as XSX is $499, I honestly don't think a $499 vs $399 PS5 will make a major difference to Sony in that first 12-18mths when it comes to sales. Is it preferable that it's cheaper? Of course. Does it suck some of us might have to save an extra month or two? Absolutely. But if it means a hamstrung generational baseline and/or less money for Sony to earmark for great content, I think it's the better outcome.

Given inflation, the value we get and the level of quality Sony have established this past decade, a $399 console in late 2020 would be ridiculously cheap. I personally think a smart play would be $449, thinking long term this would ease people towards an eventual $499 PS6 (should there be one; I think there will..). Cause generational leaps are going to require greater and greater hardware for equivalent returns; and anything less than $499 by ~2027 would be ridiculous.

Of course, over $500 for PS5 is where things will fall apart and I neither expect PS5 to come in at that nor would it be an easy pill for customers to swallow. If a console comes in at over $500 I'd expect it to be a slightly more powerful XSX; and only if Lockhart comes out at the same time for at least $150 less.

Naturally things change and can't be planned out exactly, but I think rough plan to follow for PS5 would be $449 @ launch, cut to $399 @ 1.5-2yrs, slim model $349 @ 3-3.5yrs, cut to $299 @ 6yrs. New gen at 7yrs.

It's worth remembering the PS4 is only $100 cheaper ($299) after nearly 6.5yrs; and the Pro hasn't even seen an RRP reduction ($399) since launch 3.5yrs ago. Again, lower prices are always nicer, but I honestly don't think $50-$100 across a ~7yr span is quite the issue people think it is when a company is delivering on quality and value.

There's a middleground between cheap Sony and arrogant Sony of ~2007. I think this was a very [necessary] conservative generation, I think $399 is low balling it next time round, I think $449 is confident Sony, I think $499 is very confident Sony, $549 is arrogant Sony and $599 is very arrogant Sony.
 
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anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,663
Good evening, ResetEra! I think it's time for more sacrifices!

What do you think, captain?



Yessir! bob100 and Brohan, please step forward! You are henceforth being judged for the crime of losing an avatar bet. Here is your punishment:

Tonight is a special night. I have gone and seen what each of you despise and I have selected accordingly.

bob100, you have a strong distaste for Zombies mode in call of duty



And Brohan, well..... Your displeasure was too specific to not take advantage of....



Captain, what do you think?



I'll take your silence as acceptance.

Until tomorrow......
Damn, makes previous days seem downright benevolent.
 

vivftp

Member
Oct 29, 2017
4,572
With regards to Lockhart why are people assuming $299 is the price it'll launch at? Most of the speculation I've seen has it with similar specs to the XSX but with a lesser GPU, a bit less RAM and a slightly lower clocked CPU. These don't sound like $200 worth of differences to me.

I know there's the whole sandwich theory going around with Xbox pricing with PS5 in the middle, but given what we're hearing about the XSX and PS5's BOMs it sounds like Xbox would be taking a huge loss by selling Lockhart at $299. Is that the assumption? That they'll take huge losses on the low end to gain market share while selling the high end for more or less break even?

I guess there's also the speculation that it could launch later, meaning the price of components might drop a bit, so there's that too.


As for the Bloomberg article, I'm thinking controlled leak. Maybe a leak to test the markets reaction to a possible $499 PS5? Maybe a leak to misdirect the consumers and possibly Microsoft if they really are going to do a $399 price. We know Sony aren't above a bit of public misdirection with that famous interview with Kaz just before they announced the PS4 Meeting. Right now I'm sitting at 60% $499 and 40% $399 for the PS5.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,663
With regards to Lockhart why are people assuming $299 is the price it'll launch at? Most of the speculation I've seen has it with similar specs to the XSX but with a lesser GPU, a bit less RAM and a slightly lower clocked CPU. These don't sound like $200 worth of differences to me.

I know there's the whole sandwich theory going around with Xbox pricing with PS5 in the middle, but given what we're hearing about the XSX and PS5's BOMs it sounds like Xbox would be taking a huge loss by selling Lockhart at $299. Is that the assumption? That they'll take huge losses on the low end to gain market share while selling the high end for more or less break even?

I guess there's also the speculation that it could launch later, meaning the price of components might drop a bit, so there's that too.


As for the Bloomberg article, I'm thinking controlled leak. Maybe a leak to test the markets reaction to a possible $499 PS5? Maybe a leak to misdirect the consumers and possibly Microsoft if they really are going to do a $399 price. We know Sony aren't above a bit of public misdirection with that famous interview with Kaz just before they announced the PS4 Meeting. Right now I'm sitting at 60% $499 and 40% $399 for the PS5.
Lockhart still needs a 7nm die, GDDR6, and a SSD. $299 will indeed be very challenging.
 

vivftp

Member
Oct 29, 2017
4,572
Good evening, ResetEra! I think it's time for more sacrifices!

What do you think, captain?



Yessir! bob100 and Brohan, please step forward! You are henceforth being judged for the crime of losing an avatar bet. Here is your punishment:

Tonight is a special night. I have gone and seen what each of you despise and I have selected accordingly.

bob100, you have a strong distaste for Zombies mode in call of duty



And Brohan, well..... Your displeasure was too specific to not take advantage of....



Captain, what do you think?



I'll take your silence as acceptance.

Until tomorrow......
lol, beautiful. I almost wish I could see what my new Avatar would have been, but we all know Sony's gonna come through with the event on the 26th. Can't wait for my tag :)
 

the-pi-guy

Member
Oct 29, 2017
644
What I find weird is that Sony stepped in to clarify that PS5 has hardware ray tracing because rumors where all over internet saying it may not had, but now they remain silent when there is a lot of talking about PS5 being less powerful than Xbox.
They still took their time to make that clarification. About 6 months of speculation before it happened.
 

Governergrimm

Member
Jun 25, 2019
1,253
Good evening, ResetEra! I think it's time for more sacrifices!

What do you think, captain?



Yessir! bob100 and Brohan, please step forward! You are henceforth being judged for the crime of losing an avatar bet. Here is your punishment:

Tonight is a special night. I have gone and seen what each of you despise and I have selected accordingly.

bob100, you have a strong distaste for Zombies mode in call of duty



And Brohan, well..... Your displeasure was too specific to not take advantage of....



Captain, what do you think?



I'll take your silence as acceptance.

Until tomorrow......
Didn't do a bet but I'mma come back daily to see the escalation of this. Well done
 

Axel Stone

Member
Jan 10, 2020
334
With regards to Lockhart why are people assuming $299 is the price it'll launch at? Most of the speculation I've seen has it with similar specs to the XSX but with a lesser GPU, a bit less RAM and a slightly lower clocked CPU.
Plus no optical drive, a cheaper cooling solution and potentially a smaller SSD as well.

I don’t know enough about component costs to know whether or not $299 is a realistic price point, but on the surface at least it doesn’t strike me as unrealistic.

For me personally, I’m only speculating around what I think it would need to be priced at in order to make sense in the market at all. If there’s a $100 difference between Lockhart and PS5, then I think that Lockhart’s in trouble. $150-$200 less ($249/$299 depending on what the PS5 costs) and I think it will find a market.
 

III-V

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,967
Just wanted to post this in case people are not in the other thread:


Some of the smaller details in the article don't make sense to me, although I can agree with the overall conclusions. I sort of said the same thing after their earnings call based on the comments from the CFO - things appear to be trending more expensive and $399 isn't a slam dunk. They would like to wait until Xbox announces price to make the call. I agree with this sentiment.

The actual dollars don't make sense to me because a $450 launch BOM wouldn't be a super hard pill to swallow to launch at $399 assuming they have line-of-sight for that to come down. I think it would need to be much higher for them to waiver like this.

Second, I don't recall cooling solutions being that cheap - even single components within the system. Still it seems hard to believe that cooling (even an exotic solution) would be something that drives up the price. I also don't believe they couldn't design around this issue. It's all memory, silicon yields, storage and spinning media. Those are the big areas. So a significant increase in memory pricing absolutely could be a driver.

My guess is that costs have gone up enough to put them in a weird spot. Depending on what you want to believe about performance - but if they are actually in a 9-10 vs. 12 situation, being at the same price isn't super fun. And if costs have gone up more than they expect, it could be very hard to get to a $100 delta.

That's my take anyway. I don't think it's a revelatory article, more just adding some texture to things that seem to be known.
 

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
4,784
If you're an early adopter and you want a console, you're generally gonna get that console in that time frame . As long as XSX is $499, I honestly don't think a $499 vs $399 PS5 will make a major difference to Sony in that first 12-18mths when it comes to sales. Is it preferable that it's cheaper? Of course. Does it suck some of us might have to save an extra month or two? Absolutely. But if it means a hamstrung generational baseline and/or less money for Sony to earmark for great content, I think it's the better outcome.

Given inflation, the value we get and the level of quality Sony have established this past decade, a $399 console in late 2020 would be ridiculously cheap. I personally think a smart play would be $449, thinking long term this would ease people towards an eventual $499 PS6 (should there be one; I think there will..). Cause generational leaps are going to require greater and greater hardware for equivalent returns; and anything less than $499 by ~2027 would be ridiculous.

Of course, over $500 for PS5 is where things will fall apart and I neither expect PS5 to come in at that nor would it be an easy pill for customers to swallow. If a console comes in at over $500 I'd expect it to be a slightly more powerful XSX; and only if Lockhart comes out at the same time for at least $150 less.

Naturally things change and can't be planned out exactly, but I think rough plan to follow for PS5 would be $449 @ launch, cut to $399 @ 1.5-2yrs, slim model $349 @ 3-3.5yrs, cut to $299 @ 6yrs. New gen at 7yrs.

It's worth remembering the PS4 is only $100 cheaper ($299) after nearly 6.5yrs; and the Pro hasn't even seen an RRP reduction ($399) since launch 3.5yrs ago. Again, lower prices are always nicer, but I honestly don't think $50-$100 across a ~7yr span is quite the issue people think it is when a company is delivering on quality and value.

There's a middleground between cheap Sony and arrogant Sony of ~2007. I think this was a very [necessary] conservative generation, I think $399 is low balling it next time round, I think $449 is confident Sony, I think $499 is very confident Sony, $549 is arrogant Sony and $599 is very arrogant Sony.
Also, keep trade-ins in mind. Even if the PS5 is $499, most of its audience (established PS4 owners) wouldn't need to actually be paying that. The PS4 didn't have this advantage due to the lack of BC and the PS3 not being as popular.

All this also applies to the Xboxes.
 

rfriar

Member
Mar 17, 2018
715
Good evening, ResetEra! I think it's time for more sacrifices!

What do you think, captain?



Yessir! bob100 and Brohan, please step forward! You are henceforth being judged for the crime of losing an avatar bet. Here is your punishment:

Tonight is a special night. I have gone and seen what each of you despise and I have selected accordingly.

bob100, you have a strong distaste for Zombies mode in call of duty



And Brohan, well..... Your displeasure was too specific to not take advantage of....



Captain, what do you think?



I'll take your silence as acceptance.

Until tomorrow......
-whistles- Damn, son. Makes me happy I’m not participating in guessing.
 

Pheonix

Member
Dec 14, 2018
2,175
St Kitts
Good evening, ResetEra! I think it's time for more sacrifices!

What do you think, captain?



Yessir! bob100 and Brohan, please step forward! You are henceforth being judged for the crime of losing an avatar bet. Here is your punishment:

Tonight is a special night. I have gone and seen what each of you despise and I have selected accordingly.

bob100, you have a strong distaste for Zombies mode in call of duty



And Brohan, well..... Your displeasure was too specific to not take advantage of....



Captain, what do you think?



I'll take your silence as acceptance.

Until tomorrow......
Savage.