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I think we should not expect the PS5 to dominate the market like the PS4 did

Lyng

Writer at Joypad.dk
Verified
Oct 27, 2017
1,732
It's worth noting that PS Now numbers are growing as well and at least there we know those are customers willing to pay full price. All of Game Pass's discounts make it harder to separate the dedicated crowd who might stay with the service from the impulse buy crowd who just wanted to spend a couple of bucks to play a game or check it out.

And I know that might not necessarily be the point as more points of engagement are what's important for a growing sub model, but I felt it was worth noting that it might not neccarily be a full apples to apples comparison between the 2 services right now. Both services will grow but we'll have to wait and see how they evolve for next gen and how effective they are in retaining subscribers.

Personally I think Sony should and will be eventually offering a Now/Plus hybrid tier not unlike GPU and will be making efforts to convert their 38 million or so PS+ subscribers to that higher model. That'll be the starting point for further expanding their sub base imo. I don't think these efforts will really kick off until the move to Azure is complete and possibly the PS5 hardware is ready to be put into datacenters. Right now I feel they're in a bit of a holding pattern with Now as they wait for certain things like Azure and PS5 to be ready. In the meantime they're still refining the service to improve its performance.
absolutely and my predictions earlier are, like everyone else right now, guesswork.
We won’t know how the subscription landscape turns out before all factors are fully in play.
I still think it’s a better move from Microsoft to go for the pc crowd instead of trying to sway the hardcore PlayStation fans.
 

hussien-11

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,863
Jordan
Thank God you put the qualifier of the last 3 years. You can make cases about launched aligned and monthly, yearly basis. But it's in an end of gen decline right now.

And last year it defied expectations by outselling the Switch for the year. Many didn't expect that to happen.
It really is, though,
You have to be kidding me, it took the Switch to this year to finally outsell the PS4 which is at its end of its life at this point.
Look at the market, things have changed, it was dominating Xbox One and Wii U for half of this generation's lifespan and it really felt one sided for a long time but Switch gave it a strong competition since its release in 2017, this is the market reality today. PS4 did edge Switch last year by a small margin, not total domination like what happened at the start of this gen, and Switch actually managed to beat it in USA and Japan, two of the most important gaming markets. this is not like PS2 generation at all where PS2 ate everyone's lunch and competitors failed miserably, even in terms of exclusives they are much, much less than that generation.
It is true that we are very late in console's life-cycle but PS4 had a hardware refresh which helped it to maintain unusually strong sales very late this gen. correct me if I'm mistaken, but isn't the last year the second best year for PS4 in the market in terms of units sold? and Switch managed to beat that in US/Japan and to be very competitive overall.
 

OG_Thrills

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,354
they have a large amount of subscribers already and it’s steadily growing.
Unless I am mistaken XBOX has never given out the number of paid subscribers, right?

Here in the UK they're advertising (on tv) gamepass for £1.00 so my guess is that the service is still in a position where they need to expand the subscription pool, rapidly. Even when reading the XB OT on era, the notion is that XB will bleed a lot of money before the service is where they need it to be. To be clear, I'm not talking about XB's financials, just the acknowledgement among the core that GP isn't close to where it needs to be.

If the release of a new XB changes that then I guess we're all in good standing. But my question to you is this... With GP being relied on so heavily, what happens if (as many in this thread have theorized) Playstation "dominates" next generation more aggressively than they have done this generation?

Last gen, before this current generation kicked into gear it would be considered comical or insane to put forward a theory that had XBOX selling 44 million less units. And while I'm confident Neither company will make mistakes that botch their launches I personally believe that momentum and mindshare are a often overlooked, but gargantuan factor. A factor that we wont be able to measure or see until next generation starts but still a factor which could lead to XBOX selling a lot less than they have done this generation.

Like I said initially, I never fully understood the narrative about "owning" the subscription market next generation via a service that's available now. But now that it's been explained, I have to admit, It seems like an all eggs in one basket strategy. Brilliant if it works. But one that could lead to another generation of restructuring if it doesn't.
 

cakely

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,336
Chicago
Look at the market, things have changed, it was dominating Xbox One and Wii U for half of this generation's lifespan and it really felt one sided for a long time but Switch gave it a strong competition since its release in 2017, this is the market reality today. PS4 did edge Switch last year by a small margin, not total domination like what happened at the start of this gen, and Switch actually managed to beat it in USA and Japan, two of the most important gaming markets. this is not like PS2 generation at all where PS2 ate everyone's lunch and competitors failed miserably, even in terms of exclusives they are much, much less than that generation.
It is true that we are very late in console's life-cycle but PS4 had a hardware refresh which helped it to maintain unusually strong sales very late this gen. correct me if I'm mistaken, but isn't the last year the second best year for PS4 in the market in terms of units sold? and Switch managed to beat that in US/Japan and to be very competitive overall.
If 105 million to 45 million isn't domination, what is?

The PlayStation 4 is in its very last year. It's past its peak and sales are winding down. The Switch is 2.5 years old and probably close to it's peak. It's certainly been competitive with the the PS4 for the last couple of years, but if you look at the entire generation from the beginning, the PS4 has absolutely dominated worldwide, as much as any other console ever has.
 

hussien-11

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,863
Jordan
If 105 million to 45 million isn't domination, what is?
What? are you serious? this is not how you compare systems released in different time frames, unless you are saying Switch should sell 100 million system in 2 years?! Switch is selling as fast as PS4 launch aligned and in terms of yearly sales it is on par worldwide, winning some markets while losing others.
I said it was dominating Xbox One and Wii U for half of this gen's lifespan but Switch has been competitive with it since its release. This is in no way a PS2 situation when it was like others simply didn't exist because competitors now are differentiating their offering more than that time and multi-platform development is stronger than ever.
 

Deleted member 16365

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Oct 27, 2017
4,127
I don't think Sony won this generation. Xbox lost it with the horrid XB1 launch. Same thing happened with the previous one where Sony bungled the PS3 launch and players flocked to the 360.

It really depends on who has the most momentum at their launch as that get the most sales, which gets the most exclusives, which gets the most attention, which causes more sales and a breakaway from the competition.
 

ak1287

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,193
I don't think Sony won this generation. Xbox lost it with the horrid XB1 launch. Same thing happened with the previous one where Sony bungled the PS3 launch and players flocked to the 360.

It really depends on who has the most momentum at their launch as that get the most sales, which gets the most exclusives, which gets the most attention, which causes more sales and a breakaway from the competition.
Hey, did we put this dumb shit in the bingo this time?
 

Browser

Member
Apr 13, 2019
780
If all you mean is "sony will not win by as high a margin as they did this gen" yeah, sure.
I still think it will be a big margin.
 

John Frost

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,096
Canada
I don't think Sony won this generation. Xbox lost it with the horrid XB1 launch. Same thing happened with the previous one where Sony bungled the PS3 launch and players flocked to the 360.

It really depends on who has the most momentum at their launch as that get the most sales, which gets the most exclusives, which gets the most attention, which causes more sales and a breakaway from the competition.
WTF...
 

BLUElight

Member
Oct 28, 2017
265
They’ll be fine. I think a lot depends on who is first to market, though it seems that both consoles will hit at around the same time.
 

slavesnyder

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Oct 26, 2017
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SlaveSnyder Media Corp.
I don't think Sony won this generation. Xbox lost it with the horrid XB1 launch. Same thing happened with the previous one where Sony bungled the PS3 launch and players flocked to the 360.

It really depends on who has the most momentum at their launch as that get the most sales, which gets the most exclusives, which gets the most attention, which causes more sales and a breakaway from the competition.
i totally agree.
the one who sells the most consoles will win next gen.
 

Nolbertos

Member
Dec 9, 2017
1,443
I came here to post about Sony lucky...but this thread turned into a Where’s Phantom Thief topic. I too want to know Phantom Thief’s alt :p. There should be an ERA statistic of top thread creators in the history of ERA :). Regarding Sony’s luck well, alot of planets aligned for PS4 to have the monumental success it had. Are those planets aligning again?? Guess we’ll wait till E3
 

Manmademan

Banned
Aug 6, 2018
7,387
Guys, think about it. If you're about to partake in a race and all your opponents trip the moment the starting gun is fired, have you really won?
Guys, think about it. If you're about to partake in a race that you trained seriously for over the last 12 months and bought the right equipment, and your opponents spent the last year on the couch eating cheeseburgers and showed up in untied shoes that didn't fit, have you REALLY won?
 

El-Pistolero

Member
Jan 4, 2018
690
0
hard disagree with this.

the Vita's biggest problem was that Mobile decimated the dedicated handheld market faster than anyone anticipated.
Mobile is suspected to be the reason that Wii sales fell sharply off a cliff and never recovered- it was tracking very closely to the PS2 as the PS4 is right now but ended up short of that goal by 50 million units, shocking everyone. The dive in interest in that system coincides EXACTLY when the price and availability of the iPhone went mass market around 2011.

Likewise this is what happened to the dedicated handheld market:

The PSP launched in 2004 and sold about 80 million units.
The DS launched in 2004 and sold about 154 million unts.

The 3DS launched in 2011 (there's that year again) and sold 75 million units- less than the PSP. Include the heavily stripped down 2DS model and that rises to 85.

The Vita lost around 85% of the PSP's marketshare and saw sales crash down to barely 11-12 million units.

This is a DISASTER. nearly 140 million consumers vanished from the market overnight. Sony got hit hardest because the target audience for the PSP and Vita trended older than Nintendo's for the DS and 3DS- Sony's market was far more likely to own their own cellphones. There is nothing Sony could have done with the Vita that would have saved it. Throw those memory cards in the box for free, it wouldn't have mattered.

This is WHY the Switch is a hybrid system- Nintendo was just as concerned as Sony was that there would not be a market for dedicated handhelds if that trend continued, and made a hybrid system to consolidate their base.
Fantastic post, really!
 

Hieroph

Member
Oct 28, 2017
7,395
I think we should expect the PS5 to dominate the market. Sony has gained a huge amount of goodwill with PS4 and from everything we know so far it sounds like they're doing absolutely everything right with PS5. After PS4 it's the PS5 that will be the instabuy console and the obvious number one choice for a lot of people.

That said, surprises do happen. We still don't know a lot about the system and almost nothing about the games. So while PS5 is expected to dominate, we could still be unaware of factors that will diminish PS5's appeal in some way. We'll just have to wait and see.
 

z0m3le

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,352
I think we should expect the PS5 to dominate the market. Sony has gained a huge amount of goodwill with PS4 and from everything we know so far it sounds like they're doing absolutely everything right with PS5. After PS4 it's the PS5 that will be the instabuy console and the obvious number one choice for a lot of people.

That said, surprises do happen. We still don't know a lot about the system and almost nothing about the games. So while PS5 is expected to dominate, we could still be unaware of factors that will diminish PS5's appeal in some way. We'll just have to wait and see.
Depends on the use of the word dominate. The PS5 is likely to have the largest market share when next gen hits its 5 year mark, but it probably won't sell as much by that point as the PS4 did (around 90 Million), Xbnext should sell more than the XB1 had (~35 Million), and the Switch successor will hit the market in the second or third year, not the 4th like this Switch did, so it should sell more as well.

I think we should expect a 80, 50, 50 (in Millions) market share for the big 3 by holiday 2025. Though the breakdown might happen a bit more like I said previously, since I believe there won't be much of a difference between Xbox and Playstation, and Xbox offers the better services, so a 70, 60, 50 split might happen
 

Exellus

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,633
Without knowing anything about either future console, I think the safer bet is for PlayStation to be the leader because that has been the pattern typically.
 

strife418

Member
Oct 30, 2017
473
Ps4 is dominating because it has the games to back it up. Nothing indicates PS5 will lack games. They need to work on PS Now countering Gamepass a little better maybe. Though, I think the $60 a year thing is a great start. Can you imagine if Sony released their first-party games as PS Now first day releases like Xbox? Oh and look at the switch. It's outselling PS4 lately because it's had an amazing year for releases.
 

vivftp

Member
Oct 29, 2017
4,814
Ps4 is dominating because it has the games to back it up. Nothing indicates PS5 will lack games. They need to work on PS Now countering Gamepass a little better maybe. Though, I think the $60 a year thing is a great start. Can you imagine if Sony released their first-party games as PS Now first day releases like Xbox? Oh and look at the switch. It's outselling PS4 lately because it's had an amazing year for releases.
I don't see a scenario where Sony releases all their first party content on PS Now until they can get at least a solid 25-30 million Now subscribers on a consistent basis. They're over 1 million right now so they've got a long way to go. This is how I could see things happening:

- PS Now's migration to Azure will be complete at some point in the not too distant future, affording them the infrastructure to expand to more territories and to ramp up volume to support more devices like phones, tablets, TVs...
- PS Now will integrate PS5 hardware in the datacenters at or around the launch of the PS5. I'm confident the PS5 will be fully BC with all previous consoles, meaning the PS5 hardware in the datacenters will be able to run everything.
- At some point during all of this Sony will initiate a new, more expensive subscription tier that integrates PS Now and PS Plus. Right now Plus has about 38 million subscribers and I feel Sony will do whatever they need to do to get Plus subscribers to upgrade to the new tier.
- Part of getting people to upgrade will be a slow trickle of smaller titles being released on Now day 1 and their more desirable titles will be added a while after launch. Once the number of subs to Now and this new tier reaches a critical point where it's earning them as much or more money than the traditional sales model on a consistent basis they will feel comfortable enough to put the huge first party content on the service day 1.

Now I don't know if Sony ever will put the FP content on the service day 1, but if they eventually do that's the way I see things playing out. Once they've got a solid foundation going for the service then they can try to chase the billions of people that the other companies seem intent on getting into their services. It all starts with building a solid foundation first though.
 

jroc74

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,651
What? are you serious? this is not how you compare systems released in different time frames, unless you are saying Switch should sell 100 million system in 2 years?! Switch is selling as fast as PS4 launch aligned and in terms of yearly sales it is on par worldwide, winning some markets while losing others.
I said it was dominating Xbox One and Wii U for half of this gen's lifespan but Switch has been competitive with it since its release. This is in no way a PS2 situation when it was like others simply didn't exist because competitors now are differentiating their offering more than that time and multi-platform development is stronger than ever.
Maybe this explains it better:

The PlayStation 4 is in its very last year. It's past its peak and sales are winding down. The Switch is 2.5 years old and probably close to it's peak.
Like you say, comparing systems released at different times isn't so cut n dry.
 

Apathy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,564
I think we should expect the PS5 to dominate the market. Sony has gained a huge amount of goodwill with PS4 and from everything we know so far it sounds like they're doing absolutely everything right with PS5. After PS4 it's the PS5 that will be the instabuy console and the obvious number one choice for a lot of people.

That said, surprises do happen. We still don't know a lot about the system and almost nothing about the games. So while PS5 is expected to dominate, we could still be unaware of factors that will diminish PS5's appeal in some way. We'll just have to wait and see.
People also forget that the goodwill started the final years of the PS3. MS abandoned the 360, Sony kept pumping out games. It gave people confidence in the brand and what to keep expecting. It's happening again this gen with huge first party games on the horizon even as the system is about to sunset from sucker Punch and naughty dog.
 

Dynheart

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Oct 31, 2017
658
When I think domination, I think PS4 vs Wii U and Xbox One. When the Switch is considered, and it's first 2 years, sure the PS4 out sold it, but did not dominate the device (the units sold were pretty close, actually). To me, that's healthy competition, not domination.

Hopefully Nintendo can keep that up, and Microsoft can do that next gen.

EDIT: I would like to add, there's always going to be a company that sells more units (or to fan boys, a winner). We can assume Sony, but "domination" doesn't really need to be a thing if the race is close. Plus there's other things to consider, like mind share, good will, etc.
 
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Arion

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,570
Anything can happen next gen.
Backwards compatibility is nice but it's not a deal breaker. Just because people have a digital library on the ps4 they aren't going to get a ps5 because of it. People buy new consoles to play new games.
It's been shown time and time again that a console doing well doesn't mean the successor will automatically inherit the playerbase. It was proven with the ps2>ps3, 360>xbone, wii>wiiu. Most people who buy these systems aren't enamoured with the brand. It always boils down to games (not just exclusives) and price.
 

FF Seraphim

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,372
Tokyo
Look at the market, things have changed, it was dominating Xbox One and Wii U for half of this generation's lifespan and it really felt one sided for a long time but Switch gave it a strong competition since its release in 2017, this is the market reality today. PS4 did edge Switch last year by a small margin, not total domination like what happened at the start of this gen, and Switch actually managed to beat it in USA and Japan, two of the most important gaming markets. this is not like PS2 generation at all where PS2 ate everyone's lunch and competitors failed miserably, even in terms of exclusives they are much, much less than that generation.
It is true that we are very late in console's life-cycle but PS4 had a hardware refresh which helped it to maintain unusually strong sales very late this gen. correct me if I'm mistaken, but isn't the last year the second best year for PS4 in the market in terms of units sold? and Switch managed to beat that in US/Japan and to be very competitive overall.
Looking at the market it is an amazing feat that the PS4 outsold the Switch until this year. If the PS4 beat the Switch on its last full year out that would of been crazy. It was expected the Switch to outsell it last year.
 

slavesnyder

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Oct 26, 2017
985
SlaveSnyder Media Corp.
Anything can happen next gen.
Backwards compatibility is nice but it's not a deal breaker. Just because people have a digital library on the ps4 they aren't going to get a ps5 because of it. People buy new consoles to play new games.
It's been shown time and time again that a console doing well doesn't mean the successor will automatically inherit the playerbase. It was proven with the ps2>ps3, 360>xbone, wii>wiiu. Most people who buy these systems aren't enamoured with the brand. It always boils down to games (not just exclusives) and price.
who are you to tell us all these experts getting wet in their pants about subscription services and walled gardens are missing the point?
 

rokkerkory

Member
Jun 14, 2018
5,018
I expect great great things from all 3 manufacturers. All 3 are set up very well for next-gen and that means we all win.
 
Oct 31, 2017
1,836
Looking at the market it is an amazing feat that the PS4 outsold the Switch until this year. If the PS4 beat the Switch on its last full year out that would of been crazy. It was expected the Switch to outsell it last year.
Yea the fact PS4 outsold the Switch last year was nuts. People keep forgetting the PS4 is in its final year and Switch is still young and in its prime. At this time in a console’s lifespan is when sales usually fall off a cliff and yet the PS4 is still going strong even if its sales are slowing down. Just shows how dominant the system is if anything. The fact Sony is still supporting it with several AAA releases towards the end of its life is still outstanding too, most consoles lose 1st party support completely at this point in their lives.

I’d argue it’s this traditionally long support that Sony gives their consoles that is the key to their dominance in some ways. Nintendo and MS don’t traditionally support their consoles for as long as Sony does and I think that could be hurting them in the long run especially MS. Strong support towards the end of the PS3’s life is partially what set the stage for Sony’s huge comeback at the beginning of this gen. MS all but abandoned the 360 towards the end of last gen and Nintendo also stopped supporting the Wii in a meaningful way towards the end of its life too while PS3 was getting games like TLOU, let’s hope Nintendo doesn’t abandon the Switch towards the end of its life too (I don’t think they will).
 
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cooldawn

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,016
I agree with the OP.

However, I still don't see Nintendo as a main competitor. They are resurgent but I expect a lot of those owners will also buy one of either next generation platforms.

The next generation XBOX will cause more concern for the brand. Phil Spencer has positively reshaped the business so they will be more competitive from day one come the christmas season 2020. There is one big caveat though - they don't seem to be as committed to the next generation as Sony. Talk of a dual-SKU strategy including weaker hardware may stall absolute next-generation development for the platform whereas Sony has already clearly stated it's full-throttle for PS5.

So Microsoft certainly have the opportunity to make a big difference in this coming generation but with Sony's WWS at full tilt it may well be history repeating, albeit to a lesser extent.
 

Xeontech

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,782
It's anyone's game to win or lose at this point.

Whether you think they will dominate or not doesn't really matter. It could go either way.

But the price, power, and exclusives will have just as much importance as the hold of marketshare. As we've seen.