I think we should not expect the PS5 to dominate the market like the PS4 did

Jul 28, 2019
3,665
I feel like PlayStation 5 will be the leading console of its generation, for a whole variety of reasons that at this point are well trodden territory:
  • PlayStation brand power
  • Sony's marketing and logistical infrastructure in major markets around the world
  • Sony's head start over Microsoft when it comes to great compelling exclusives that people will buy their console for
  • Sony's grasp over the console market, that has just ensured that they have not had a true failure in the console market yet
However, there is a difference between being the leading console (which PS5 will be) and being the dominant console (which PS4 was earlier in the gen), and on ResetEra, I often see a lot of people expecting PS5 to replicate the kind of immense and utter large scale market domination the PS4 exercised earlier in the gen.

I don't think that will happen, and there's a very basic and simple reason as to why: the PS4 had the benefit of launching in a market with no viable competition. Nintendo completely face planted with the biggest mainstream failure in console history, while Microsoft suffered from the worst messaging and marketing debacle in the console market of all time, which continues to plague Xbox One to this day. Sony had a clear field, the entire console market to themselves, for all practical purposes - and this, combined with their inherent strengths and advantages (as outlined above) led to the kind of utter domination we saw in the early years.

This is not to say that Sony got "lucky", or that they only won because the competition messed up. To reiterate (for the third time), Sony played their hand perfectly, and they were always going to win, no matter what, on the sheer inherent strength they have built up over the last two decades. I'm not handwaving their success as luck - I am saying the extent of their success definitely was influenced by the non-existence of any meaningful competition in the market at the time.

The PS5 launches in a vastly different market. Nintendo is resurgent, and has reasserted itself as a top seller with market-appealing exclusives. More importantly (in terms of direct competition), Xbox is in a far better position now than it was at the start of the generation. Microsoft has carefully studied its mistakes and put in the legwork to try and address the problems that took it down earlier this generation: they have purchased studios to bolster their first party, they have valuable offerings like Game Pass, plus initiatives like Play Anywhere amd BC to counter the image of them being "anti consumer"; even if Xbox ends up not doing well outside the anglosphere, in the Anglosphere, it will end up doing far better than the Xbox One did - and that success will obviously come at the expense of the PS5.

I still expect PS5 to "win" the generation in total - but I do think it won't outsell the competition as much as the PS4 did. i think a stronger Xbox will lead to Xbox clawing back some marketshare from PlayStation - enough that PS5 won't be dominant like the PS4 was (even though it will be the leader).
 

Mr.Deadshot

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,523
It will all come down to the games they offer. People buy hardware for the exclusives. This has been true for every generation and I don't see this changing. Xbox has still a lot to prove on that field.
 

Pankratous

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,998
Yeah, both Nintendo and Xbox look like they are in much better places now. And that's great. It'll push Sony to be even better too, in order to compete. What a time to be alive.
 

Goldenroad

Right Here Right Meow
Member
Nov 2, 2017
4,436
Xbox will likely do better in NA than it did this gen. That's as far as I'm willing to go.
 

Izzard

Member
Sep 21, 2018
1,623
Theres some games that will shift PS5, Spiderman 2, TLOU2, HZD 2, GTA 6 to name a few. I think next gen will be huge for PlayStation, but they can’t possibly be as dominant and I don’t think anyone would expect that to be the case.
 

srtrestre

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,468
We'll see. They'll still do very well, but they are definitely not going up against a weak Nintendo and MS this around.
 

Karonoth

Member
Nov 10, 2018
1,804
I think Xbox and Nintendo being more competitive won't really affect PlayStation that much. I could see all 3 of them selling 100 million consoles if they do everything right (maybe Xbox not as much since they tend to do worse in continental Europe and Japan). We more or less had that in the PS3/360/Wii days, there's no reason why it can't happen again.
 

Zool

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,327
It won’t. It’s not making the effort... blocking indies/not investing in indies or new relations etc.
 

jelly

Member
Oct 26, 2017
13,097
I think PS5 will be very successful mainly because Playstation always is and Xbox not being a factor in many places in the world being the other reason. Microsoft riding a good wave and not looking like they are going to balls it up in any meaningful way, that will take some wind out their sails but I think the market is just growing bigger and bigger so the numbers will still go up. Sony will definetly have their biggest challenge yet from Microsoft, should be interesting to see how it plays out when neither is screwing up. Whatever you buy, won't be disappointed, great times ahead.
 

VeePs

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,319
Luck has to run out at some point right?
It wasn't luck. It was a perfect storm of various factors. Ultimately, Sony delivered and Microsoft & Nintendo didn't.

Price point, power, first-party studios, third party support, online features, controller, etc.

The PS4 was a major step up from PS3 in various ways. They built on everything the PS3 did well and did poorly.

Calling it "luck" isn't fair imo, Sony should be commended on what a great job they did.
 

SolidJaum

Member
Jun 2, 2019
830
The One Who Makes Threads /s

And I think Playstation will continue to be at the same spot until Xbox release some killer app. Casuals usually buy just one console, and Playstation right now have better IP's to sell to people. Also, if MS manages to bring more people via PC Gaming, I don't think they care.
 

Burrman

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
7,635
It won’t be a repeat of 2013 for sure. MS has had positive word of mouth lately.
 

TimeFire

Avenger
Nov 26, 2017
6,785
Brazil
Yeah, I think we're getting a repeat of Gen 7 next year. Microsoft and Sony head-to-head and Nintendo doing it's own stuff.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,321
I don't expect the PS5 to provide the same trouncing it did last time because Xbox isn't punching itself in the face anymore. Who will come out on top I can't say, but I expect it to be a closer race than it was when this gen started. Microsoft got its shit together and has been making positive waves these past couple years.
However MS still has catching up to do on exclusives. While it does feel like Sony is more complacent and Microsoft more forward-thinking, MS still needs the exclusives if they want to pull ahead.
 
OP
OP
The One Who Knocks
Jul 28, 2019
3,665
Luck has to run out at some point right?
Yep, 25 years of luck is too much.

This is not to say that Sony got "lucky", or that they only won because the competition messed up. To reiterate (for the third time), Sony played their hand perfectly, and they were always going to win, no matter what, on the sheer inherent strength they have built up over the last two decades. I'm not handwaving their success as luck - I am saying the extent of their success definitely was influenced by the non-existence of any meaningful competition in the market at the time.
Made it all bold and emphasized for people who don’t like reading
 

yuoke

Member
Oct 25, 2017
33,747
This is the equivalent to what nfl fans have said about the patriots the last 20 years.
 

Arc

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
2,009
We have literally 25+ years that show the only thing that really matters is exclusive games. If Sony out delivers Microsoft again then they will win again.
 

Wollan

Mostly Positive
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,930
Norway but living in France
What's the comparison metric? Number of consoles sold? They don't overlap as much anymore. I will be enjoying Halo Infinite on my Windows PC together with the other Microsoft titles. I was required to buy a Xbox console just a few years ago but there's no need now.
 
Oct 31, 2017
168
The market fundamentals haven’t really changed though globally, XBOX is really strong in the USA and competing in a few Western Europe markets, but everywhere else they’ve made no progress at all. There are so many markets where Sony just dominates, and most of these are the ones that will provide the future growth in the market, so I don’t think they have anything to worry about.
 

Hobbes

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,103
United States
However, there is a difference between being the leading console (which PS5 will be)
We cannot possibly know this though. We can predict that it might be, but people said the Xbox One would be just as good as the 360 and then it bombed. I'm not saying I think the PS5 will, but I think it's a bit early to say which one is going to be the leading console.

The PS5 launches in a vastly different market. Nintendo is resurgent, and has reasserted itself as a top seller with market-appealing exclusives.
Aren't Switch owners also owners of a console or PC? I don't thin Switch operates in the same ball park as Xbox and PS5. It is its only niche product that just happens to have mass market value.
 

Hyun Sai

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,170
Playstation brand is stronger than ever. With Xbox slowly retreating from the hardware fight, NIntendo remains the only real competitor. Unless Phil Harrison is launching PS5, next gen is a lock.
 

NinjaScooter

Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,661
We know so little about next gen I don’t know that we can definitively expect anything either way. Not sure what more there is to discuss outside of fairly baseless speculation.
 

Sotha_Sil

Member
Nov 4, 2017
2,125
PlayStation will be the biggest brand again, but I do expect Xbox to regain some of the ground it lost this generation.
 

jelly

Member
Oct 26, 2017
13,097
.
Playstation brand is stronger than ever. With Xbox slowly retreating from the hardware fight, NIntendo remains the only real competitor. Unless Phil Harrison is launching PS5, next gen is a lock.
Not sure about that, they are just expanding and offering other choices to access their content.
 

ElephantShell

10,000,000
Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,997
My prediction is that North America will be fairly neck and neck but PlayStation is too strong world-wide so will have a decent lead overall.
 

Goldenroad

Right Here Right Meow
Member
Nov 2, 2017
4,436
It won’t. It’s not making the effort... blocking indies/not investing in indies or new relations etc.
I feel like the ID @ XBOX team has been a pretty big priority for XBOX this generation, especially the last few years. Lots of great indie games have come, and are coming, to Game Pass.
 

Scrawnton

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,207
I read the entire OP and I agree a lot with what you say. I can see Sony being the “winner” of next gen; however, I don’t think they’re going to be outselling Xbox 2:1 like they have this generation.

i can see Sony outselling the Xbox by 20-30million when it’s all said and done, and that is not a sign of dominance for Sony or a loss for the Xbox.

I think Nintendo will remain to the side and be a very strong competitor to Sony but still in its own market.
 

SilverX

Member
Jan 21, 2018
3,758
OP, the PS4 launched in a very bad position. Sony's first party was struggling and the losses from the PS3/other Sony divisions were still keeping the company looking bloodied and battered even a couple of years after they were experiencing the initial success of the PS4. It took several years later of record breaking profit to get them back into the prime of PlayStation. And that's where they are as they are counting down to when they can reveal the PS5.

Sony didn't have to break much of a sweat to get to this position. They hardly moved the PS4's price, rarely relied on third party deals, and focused on growing their first party studios. Imagine if they are backed into a corner during the PS5 era? They have the money now to make some huge moves to gain momentum if necessary. Not only that, but several of their first party games are among the most anticipated across all next gen consoles.

I think they will dominate the way they did with the PS5 the same way they did with the PS4, but it will be more costly on them. That's about it.
 

Thardin

Member
Jan 7, 2018
755
I tend to agree for most of the reasons you laid out, OP. Sony absolutely killed it with the PS2 and then took all of that mindshare and burned it down at the start of the PS360 generation. They finished out that gen strong and kept on punching with the PS4 while Microsoft blundered.

I don't expect Sony or Microsoft to necessarily come out this gen with a blunder on the magnitude of either of those, so I don't really see a clear path for the dominant brand to swap as it has in the past.

Sony will continue to remain strong on the back of their exclusives and current market lead, but if Microsoft continues to fight back and delivers a good console then they should be able to match blows much better than this gen.